Policy Reports

Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 on Child Poverty in Georgia using a Micro-Simulation Model

Poverty, Impact of COVID 19, Microsimulations, Cash transfers

August 2020

COVID-19 pandemic, apart from the health-related challenges, has a serious socio-economic impact on the households. The pandemic is predicted to cause the worst economic recession in decades with a forecasted 5.2 percent contraction in global GDP.  ILO recently estimated that the pandemic would cause job losses equal to 195 million full-time jobs.  Due to the contraction in economic activities, globally, an estimated 42-66 million children could fall into poverty.

Georgia is forecasted to experience a significant recession because of the pandemic and given high rates of vulnerability to poverty in the country; this will have a substantial impact on overall poverty and child poverty rates. This study aims to provide estimates of the effects of COVID-19 on household and child poverty in Georgia, through its impact on the labour market.   The study, apart from estimating the poverty impact of the COVID crisis, also estimates the poverty-reducing impact of several cash transfer scenarios targeting different groups in the population and at varying benefit levels. One of the outputs of the study will be an interactive simulation model that will enable policymakers to look at the poverty impact and cost of varying levels of the cash benefit under different scenarios. 

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Interactive Simulation Tool 

ESSN Mid-term Review Report

Refugees, cash transfers

February 2020

The World Food Programme (WFP) Turkey Country Office on behalf of the ESSN stakeholders commissioned this mid-term review of the Emergency Social Safety Net (ESSN), funded by the Directorate General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (DG ECHO). The first phase of the ESSN (ESSN 1) ran from September 2016, with roll-out starting in early 2017; while ESSN 2 commenced in January 2018 and will run until March 2020. This review covers the period from May 2018 to November 2019. The intended users of the review include WFP; TK; the Republic of Turkey Ministry of Family, Labour, and Social Services (MoFLSS) and DG ECHO; as well as other organizations providing assistance to refugees in Turkey.
Turkey currently hosts more refugees than any other country in the world. There are 4 million registered refugees in Turkey, of whom 3.6 million are Syrian refugees. The ESSN launched in December 2016 with the objective of stabilising or improving living standards of the most vulnerable out of camp refugee households. The ESSN was designed in conjunction with the Government of Turkey and is implemented through a partnership between WFP, TK, the Ministry of Family, Labour, and Social Services (MoFLSS) and Halkbank.

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Life in Transition Survey- Gender Analysis and Gender Modules

Gender, civic participation, women’s empowerment

March 2019

Gender Analysis using the Life in Transition Survey (LITS III) deals with a number of gender-related issues for 34 countries where the survey was collected. The study focuses on gender differences in four key areas: i) employment and entrepreneurial activity ii) asset ownership iii) the burden of care in the household and attitudes towards its need and provision and iv) norms on gender roles and attitudes towards the gender balance in household decision making. The Life in Transition Survey (LITS III) was conducted jointly by the World Bank and EBRD and is a combined household and attitude survey. The third round of LITS was implemented in 2015-2016 in 34 countries, with an average of 1,500 households per country. The survey consists of a number of modules covering a broad range of individual and household attributes. Crucially for the present study, and in contrast to previous implementations of the survey, two key changes were made to LITS III permitting the gender analysis outlined above. Firstly, new questions were added relating to asset ownership, care demand in the household and gender norms. Secondly, the responses to the asset and employment modules were expanded to include those from a secondary respondent of the opposite sex.

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Decentralised Evaluation of the ECHO funded Emergency Social Safety Net (ESSN) in Turkey

Refugees, cash transfers

April 2018

Turkey has the largest refugee population of any country in the world with 2.8 million Syrian refugees currently residing in Turkey. The Emergency Social Safety Net Programme (ESSN) will provide at least 1 million refugees with an unconditional and unrestricted cash transfer of 100 TL per month making it the largest ever EU-supported humanitarian cash transfer programme. The programme is available to all foreigners with refugee status who live off-camp and are under temporary protection or international protection. The programme is funded by the European Commission through European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (ECHO) and is implemented through the Turkish government social welfare system by means of an ATM cash card. The WFP is a key stakeholder in the project and worked closely with ECHO to design and implement the programme. The interim evaluation assesses the first year of the programme’s implementation and is aimed to be used to inform decision-making in the second year. In collaboration with Oxford Policy Management, Development Analytics was involved in organising fieldwork, carrying out focus group discussions and key informant interviews, and conducting qualitative data analysis.


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October 2017

This report focuses on access to education among disadvantaged groups in the member states of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). The report provides an overview of the current status and recent trends in education focusing on access to quality education by poverty status, location, gender, spoken language /ethnicity, and disability status of children as well as policies and programmes to improve access among disadvantaged groups. The main focus is on primary and lower secondary education. The report consists of four parts. i) An outline of the conceptual framework used in analysing the state of education in OIC countries. ii) A summary of the state of education across OIC member states. This includes an analysis of trends across and between countries as well as an assessment of which groups are most disadvantaged with respect to access to education. iii) Case studies for the member states Jordan, Pakistan, Senegal, and Turkey provide a more detailed assessment of factors affecting education provision in these countries. iv) Policy recommendations to increase access to education among disadvantaged groups. These include both general recommendations but also country-specific recommendations that take into account the local context.



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📖 Download the infographics of  Pakistan  Jordan   Senegal

Agence Française de Développement

May 2016

Female labour force participation remains low in Turkey compared to other OECD countries and labour market attachment is particularly low among women with children. In recent years, government policy has focused on the expansion of childcare services as a means to support women’s participation in employment. Yet there are significant gaps in the provision of flexible quality childcare services and demand remains constrained by social norms, practices and affordability issues. Childcare and preschool services are mostly organized by public providers. Legislation that aims to encourage businesses to set-up childcare services for their employees lacks enforcement mechanisms to be effective. Greater public investment in the private provision and regulation changes could result in more affordable private provision for families and encourage the development of private sector provision, including in Organized Industrial Zones. Municipalities could also play a stronger role in providing childcare services.


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The World Bank and Ministry of Family and Social Policy of Turkey

September 2015

Despite increases in the availability of centre-based child care and preschool services in Turkey over the last decade, both the supply of services and utilization remains low. There are regional disparities in availability and the majority of children and households remain unserved in terms of childcare and preschool services. This report has collected and assessed information on the supply and demand for childcare services in Turkey with the objective of identifying key constraints and opportunities to expand the quality and affordable access. The analysis in this report shows that current utilization of childcare services cannot be construed as a lack of demand for services, but rather as a lack of demand for services at existing cost and price-quality structures. Existing services that respond to the needs of working mothers are mainly private services and tend to be more expensively priced than the willingness and ability to pay of the average household. For most women the difference between earnings and the cost of care is too low to justify joining the labour force and their willingness to pay for care does not cover the current median prices for childcare and kindergarten services.


📖 Download the report in English / in Turkish

📖 Download the infographic in English / in Turkish


📖 Read our article: "Investing in women and the next generation: The case for expanding childcare in Turkey"

Ministry of Development of Turkey, COMCEC Coordination Office

September 2015

A lack of access to basic services such as education, healthcare, and basic infrastructure constitutes factors of multidimensional poverty as well. Unfortunately, around the world, basic services often fail to reach the people in material poverty leading to a vicious cycle where the material poor lacks access to services, and those lacking access stay in material poverty. This usually occurs due to the failures in the accountability relationships between the citizens, the State, and the service providers. The report prepared for the COMCEC Poverty Alleviation Working group gives an overview of basic service delivery across five sectors in 57 OIC (Organization of Islamic Cooperation) member countries focusing on current levels of access, service delivery models, financing methods, and commonly observed challenges. These sectors that the report focuses on are education, health care, water, sanitation, and electricity. Problems with service delivery were found, to some degree, across all OIC countries irrespective of their income level. Yet, problems are definitely more pronounced among low-income member countries. The report underlines the fact that member countries should focus on strengthening the accountability relationships between actors in the delivery chain to get better value for money invested and to provide better access to the poor.


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The World Bank Group

September 2014

Beginning in 2003, Turkey initiated a series of reforms under the Health Transformation Program (HTP) that over the past decade have led to the achievement of universal health coverage (UHC). The progress of Turkey’s health system has few — if any — parallels in scope and speed. Before the reforms, Turkey’s aggregate health indicators lagged behind those of OECD member states and other middle-income countries. The health financing system was fragmented, with four separate insurance schemes and a “Green Card” program for the poor, each with distinct benefits packages and access rules. Both the Ministry of Labor and Social Security and Ministry of Health (MoH) were providers and financiers of the health system, and four different ministries were directly involved in public health care delivery. Turkey’s reform efforts have impacted virtually all aspects of the country’s health system and have resulted in the rapid expansion of the proportion of the population covered and of the services to which they are entitled. At the same time, financial protection has improved. For example, (i) insurance coverage increased from 64 to 98 percent between 2002 and 2012; (ii) the share of pregnant women having four antenatal care visits increased from 54 to 82 percent between 2003 and 2010, and (iii) citizen satisfaction with health services increased from 39.5 to 75.9 percent between 2003 and 2011. Despite dramatic improvements, there is still space for Turkey to continue to improve its citizens’ health outcomes, and challenges lie ahead for improving services beyond primary care. The main criticism of reform has so far come from health sector workers; the future sustainability of reform will rely not only on continued financial support to the health sector but also on the maintenance of service provider satisfaction.


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March 2014

The project evaluated the impact of a 3-year project funded by the UN- Women Trust Fund for Reducing Gender-Based Violence and implemented in Turkey by the Mother-Child Education Foundation (AÇEV). The Father Training for Violence-Free Families Project (FTVFFP) aims to prevent violence against women and girls (VAW/G) by engaging men in a comprehensive and community-based violence prevention program. Throughout the three-year project, fathers and their wives were trained in a program that aims to foster democratic, anti-violent and gender-sensitive attitudes and behaviours within the family. The impact evaluation study used a mixed-methods methodology using both quantitative surveys and qualitative focus groups and key informant interviews. 

The evaluation aimed (i) to measure improvements and changes in outcomes as a result of the trainings, in terms of the fathers’ attitudes towards their children and wives, and the mothers’ awareness of violence and the existing legal structure in Turkey for protecting against VAW/G; (ii) to describe the external and contextual factors that may have also been at play and influenced the factors measured during the evaluation;  (iii) to identify the strengths, weaknesses, challenges, and trends in the project activities that have implications for strengthening its future administrative, programmatic and strategic directions. 


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The World Bank Group

November 2013

This joint study, by the World Bank and the Turkish Ministry of Development, explores the status and effects of good jobs in Turkey's current economy. After a brief account of economic events, it examines the relationship between growth and employment in Turkey, with a particular regard to the participation of different social groups in the labour market, such as women and youth. It then analyzes where jobs are being created and which activities are the most productive for the Turkish economy, and assesses if jobs have moved to more productive activities in recent years. Finally, the report proceeds to measure the impact of different types of jobs on the welfare of an entire household and on the households relative position in the overall income distribution.


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تقييم الاثر ، التحليل النوعي ، التحليلات التنموية  ، تحليلات كمية ، اسياسات اجتماعية، البحث النوعي ، جلسات تركيز  ، مناقشات مجموعة التركيز ، تدريب صناع السياسة  ، تدريب  ، تعليم مبكر، ، تعليم الطفولة المبكرة  ، تمكين المرأة ، رعياة الطفولة ، التعليم 

Kalitatif , yapıcıların eğitimi, eğitim, erken çocukluk eğitimi, Kadınların Güçlendirilmesi, çocuk bakımı, eğitimanaliznicel analiz, sosyalpolitika, nitel araştırma, politika

Development Analytics provides evidence based research for social program and policy development. Our main areas of study are poverty, education, health, social protection and the overall distributional impact of social policies. We specialize in large scale data analysis and statistical methods for social research. Our clients include central governments, international development organizations, NGOs (as well as corporate clients with a social responsibility vision). We provide our clients with research and tools to (i) understand and diagnose social problems, (ii) devise programs to tackle these issues and (iii) to measure and rigorously evaluate their results.