Exploring the Use of Digital ID and Big Data for the Financial Inclusion of Refugees in Istanbul

Refugees, Financial Inclusion, Digital Identification

July 2020 - July 2022

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The financial inclusion of Syrian refugees is one of the vital issues of the Turkish economy. Both as employees and entrepreneurs, Syrian refugees, have been contributing to the economy; however, they face various challenges in their daily lives vis-a-vis authorities and financial institutions.  In response to the Syrian Refugee Crisis, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development ("EBRD") has developed a Refugee Crisis Response Programme. This study is designed under this Programme, and the overall objective of the study is to support the EBRD's efforts in improving the financial inclusion of refugee entrepreneurs in Turkey. Better access to financing opportunities is likely to help Syrian enterprises grow their business and thus, accelerate the Turkish economy's growth and increase export potential.

​The study aims to shed light on the current situation about the financial inclusion of refugee entrepreneurs, determine how Digital Identification Technologies might play a role in refugees' access to finance, and identify global approaches and best practices regarding refugees' access to finance. The study will also provide the design of a pilot project with potential partners to employ these tech-based solutions to support refugee entrepreneurs.

Strategic Mid-term Evaluation of The Facility for Refugees in Turkey

Refugees, Evaluation

March 2019 - June 2021

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The Facility for Refugees in Turkey (the Facility) is a EUR 6 billion mechanism designed to share Turkey’s burden of hosting close to four million refugees. Organised in two tranches, it coordinates the EU refugee response, focusing on humanitarian assistance and protection, education, health, socio-economic support, and migration management. The evaluation’s scope includes all actions funded and instruments mobilised under Facility Tranche I (EUR 3 billion) between 2015/16 and 2020. The purpose of the evaluation is: (i) To provide an overall assessment of the performance of the Facility to date, focusing on intermediate results measured against its objectives, (ii) To provide lessons learned and actionable recommendations to improve current and future actions and strategy. The Facility includes portfolios of humanitarian and non-humanitarian interventions across four sectors – education; health; socio-economic support; and protection, which the evaluation covers in a series of standalone sector reports. This evaluation was implemented by Landell Mills Ltd. with support from Development Analytics responsible for organizing and executing the fieldwork (accompanied by international experts) in Turkey and providing local expertise through its national experts for this study. Development Analytics also provided quantitative and qualitative data analysis for the sector reports and provided writing support in the preparation of the sector reports, co-leading the sector report for socioeconomic support. 

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📖 Download the Executive Summary

📖 Download the Main Report 

📖 Download Sector Report (Education)

📖 Download Sector Report (Health)

📖 Download Sector Report (Socio-Economic Support)

📖 Download Sector Report (Protection)

📖 Download Annexes

Microsimulation Model for Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 on Child Poverty in St Lucia

Poverty, Multi-dimensional Poverty, Impact of COVID-19, Microsimulations, Cash Transfers

May 2020 - February 2021

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Poverty is already high in St Lucia with 25.0 percent of the population living under the national poverty line.  Along with the rest of the world, St Lucia is currently dealing with the socio-economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to provide estimates on the impact of COVID-19 on monetary and multidimensional poverty in Saint Lucia, through various channels including the labour market, health and education. After identifying household-level shocks and re-estimating poverty figures based on this model, the distribution of cash transfers to various target groups are modelled, and their ‘alleviating’ impact on poverty rates are estimated along with total cost and cost-effectiveness of each scenario.

The study estimates that monetary poverty and inequality increase across the country after the shocks and the pandemic poses considerable non-monetary threats to people’s lives, which go beyond short-medium run harm. Cash transfers are found to be helpful in alleviating poverty but the transfer levels should be at a considerable level to achieve a meaningful impact.

Assessment of the Socio-Economic Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Children and Families in Turkey

Poverty, Impact of COVID-19, Microsimulations, Cash Transfers

June 2020 - November 2020

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COVID-19 pandemic, apart from the health-related challenges, has a serious socio-economic impact on the households. This study provides estimations of the possible impact of the current crisis on both household and child poverty in Turkey through the labour market channel. The model aims to predict the possible impact of COVID-19 on household labour income and hence household expenditure that will decrease as a result of loss of jobs or reduced labour income. The model assumes that some types of jobs/sectors may be more vulnerable than others to this shock. After estimating the impact of the shock on household income and expenditures, the same model is used to estimate the possible impact of cash transfers to various target groups to alleviate this negative income effect. The impact of cash transfers on outcomes such as overall poverty, child poverty and inequality are estimated along with total cost and cost-effectiveness of each scenario. We simulate 7 different cash transfer scenarios in two different transfer levels (low and high). The transfer can be per household or per child and the targeted groups change from being universal to targeting by household expenditure level. The microsimulation makes use of Household Budget Survey 2018 (collected by TURKSTAT) as the main data source.

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📖 Download the Paper​

Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 on Child Poverty in Georgia using a Micro-Simulation Model

Poverty, Impact of COVID-19, Microsimulations, Cash Transfers

May 2020 - September 2020

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Georgia is forecasted to experience a significant recession because of the pandemic and given high rates of vulnerability to poverty in the country; this could have a substantial impact on overall poverty and child poverty rates. This study aims to provide estimates of the effects of COVID-19 on household and child poverty in Georgia, through its impact on the labour market. The study, apart from estimating the poverty impact of the COVID crisis, also estimates the poverty-reducing impact of several cash transfer scenarios targeting different groups in the population and at varying benefit levels. Cash transfer scenarios range from being per household to being per child and the targeted groups change from being universal to targeting a subgroup of the population. Coverage, benefit incidence, total cost and cost-effectiveness of each scenario are also estimated along with several other indicators. One of the outputs of the study is an interactive simulation model that will enable policymakers to look at the poverty impact and cost of varying levels of the cash benefit under different scenarios. 

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📖 Download the Report ​

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Interactive Simulation Tool

Enhancing Advocacy Capacities of Youth CSOs in Turkey: Guiding CSOs through Research

Youth, Civic Participation, Advocacy, Trainings

April 2019 - October 2020

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This project aims to provide background research on the situation of young people who are “neither in education nor in employment or training” (NEET), highlight CSO models in Turkey that address this problem, and strengthen the capacity of CSOs working in the field of youth empowerment. By analysing the situation, building capacity at youth CSOs, and introducing their models to experts at relevant ministries the project aims to enrich the ongoing policy discussions on the issue of NEET.  The project has three main activity packages: (i) Building knowledge and research with a baseline research study, (ii) Training and capacity building workshops in youth CSOs and preparation of a handbook, (iii) Dissemination, advocacy, and networking workshops.

The project is led by Development Analytics with Hayal Ortakları Derneği (YGA) as a co-applicant. The project is funded by the European Union under the Grant Scheme for Civil Society Support Programme.

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📖 Download the Report  / the Summary (English)​

📖 Download the Report  / the Summary (Turkish)​

Read the Report Online

Case Study on KEDV Women’s Empowerment and Community-Driven Development Model

Women's Empowerment

October 2018 - March 2019

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Women's cooperatives, have come to the forefront both in academic literature and policy reports as an innovative model that responds to global and regional needs shaped around gender equality, development and poverty. The Foundation for the Support of Women’s Work (KEDV) is a non-governmental organization founded in 1986 in Turkey and has been working with women for more than 30 years to “change women's lives and the society they live in and to build strong societies free from poverty and inequality”. The overall objective of this project is to analyse women cooperatives as a development model and reveal the role of KEDV in women’s cooperative movement in Turkey and its implementation model as a case. This project provides a review of i) the literature to understand recent developments in understanding the role of cooperatives in developing countries, ii) KEDV’s model, including value statements, processes, internal reports, assessments, and policy documents, iii) and cooperative case studies to understand the role of KEDV and women in the social cooperative movement in Turkey.

A mixture of a desk review of policy documents, articles, reports, and strategic plans and qualitative fieldwork (i.e. key in-depth-interviews and focus group discussions done with selected women cooperatives) are used to gather data and present findings for this project.

Life in Transition Survey- Gender Analysis and Gender Modules

Gender, Care Work

November 2016 - August 2017

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Gender Analysis using the Life in Transition Survey (LITS III) deals with a number of gender-related issues for 34 countries where the survey was collected. The study focuses on gender differences in four key areas: i) employment and entrepreneurial activity ii) asset ownership iii) the burden of care in the household and attitudes towards its need and provision and iv) norms on gender roles and attitudes towards the gender balance in household decision making. The Life in Transition Survey (LITS III) was conducted jointly by the World Bank and EBRD and is a combined household and attitude survey. The third round of LITS was implemented in 2015-2016 in 34 countries, with an average of 1,500 households per country. The survey consists of a number of modules covering a broad range of individual and household attributes. Crucially for the present study, and in contrast to previous implementations of the survey, two key changes were made to LITS III permitting the gender analysis outlined above. Firstly, new questions were added relating to asset ownership, care demand in the household, and gender norms. Secondly, the responses to the asset and employment modules were expanded to include those from a secondary respondent of the opposite sex.

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📖 Download the Report

Final Evaluation of the Pilot Implementation of SCORE Methodology in Turkey

Sustainability, Employment

December 2015 - April 2016

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Sustaining Competitive and Responsible Enterprises (SCORE) is a practical training and in-factory counselling programme to increase the productivity of small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) while promoting respect for workers’ rights. The programme demonstrates the best international practice in the manufacturing and service sectors and helps SMEs to participate in global supply chains. The intervention in Turkey targeted SMEs in Turkey in the selected province; Kocaeli to improve the competitiveness and productivity levels of the selected SMEs through strengthening the workplace cooperation and working conditions to ensure scaling up SCORE programme by the relevant government agencies and industry organizations to enable a larger number of SMEs to benefit from the SCORE in Turkey. The final evaluation of the project aimed to assess the results of the work done in order to properly report on the results as well as define the steps for possible further project development in the improvement of working conditions in SMEs and SME efficiency and productivity. The evaluation applied the key criteria of relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, sustainability, and impact potential. To this end, a fieldwork composing of in-depth interviews had been conducted, and original data collected through (i) these qualitative interviews, and (ii) quantitative surveys from the programme participants.​

School to Work Transition in Moldova: Informing Schooling and Jobs Decisions

Youth and Employment, School to Work Transition

August 2015 - October 2015

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The main objective of the task “Informing Schooling and Jobs Decisions in Moldova” was to inform on‐going and planned reforms in Moldova that aim to improve labour market outcomes, in particular through better aligning the education system with labour market needs, with a focus on better understanding how males and females from different socio‐economic groups form their expectations regarding labour market outcomes and how they make their schooling and employment decisions in relation to these expectations. For this purpose, both quantitative and qualitative data were collected by the World Bank, combining mixed-methods individual interviews and focus group discussions. This Project entailed the qualitative coding and analysis of data from 22 focus groups of young people in vocational schools, junior and secondary schools universities, recent graduates, as well as parents and teachers. 

​(i) Reasons to choose specific education paths
(ii) Student aspirations
(iii) Perception of the education system and the different career orientation activities.

Final Global Evaluation of the Decent Work in the Green Economy Project

Sustainability, Employment

March 2015 - July 2015

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The ILO project “Decent Work in the Green Economy” has focused on the employment aspects of national efforts to transition to a green economy. The project was implemented in 3 countries Mexico, China, and Turkey. The global evaluation report was undertaken in this project after carrying out the local interviews in Turkey and receiving local country reports for Mexico and China. The report followed the guidelines indicated in the TOR and evaluate: (i) the project’s relevance and effectiveness; project achievements against immediate objective and expected outputs; (ii) emerging outcomes and impacts of the interventions; (iii) lessons learned and recommendations for future projects of similar focus.   

Good Jobs in Turkey: Post-Crisis Adjustment and Employment Generation for Men, Women, and Youth in Turkey

Youth, Gender, Employment

July 2013 - September 2013

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The paper looked at the composition and nature of employment generation among youth and women in the post-crisis period in Turkey between 2009-2011. The paper discussed changes in trends in employment generation, particularly for youth and women between the pre-crisis and post-crisis periods.  While the rapid growth of GDP and employment in the post-crisis period, coupled with formalization of employment in the labour market and the increased employment elasticity of growth, presented a favourable picture of the employment situation in Turkey, a closer look at labour force surveys suggested that there was not yet reason to assume that these changes in the labour market will have lasting effects. From evidence, the majority of the changes observed could be linked to (i) the agricultural sector re-absorbing a significant portion of the unskilled female labour force into informal employment; (ii) temporary growth in the residential construction sector; and (iii) older people remaining in the formal labour market for longer periods. Younger cohorts have seen a shift from informal to formal work, if with little overall job growth. However, for youth, a significant change could not be found in the employment trend in the post-crisis period compared to the pre-crisis period. The improvement in female labour force participation, particularly when we disregard returns to the agricultural sector - is not yet significantly above its pre-crisis trend either. ​

Survey on School-based Violence among Young Adolescents

Youth

March 2013 - May 2013

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"School-based Violence (and Bullying) among Young Adolescents" is a study conducted by the Young Life Foundation (Genç Hayat Vakfı) to understand the situation of high school students being exposed to or witnessing violence and bullying, and their views on violence. The presence of violence among young people, its frequency, types, and how it reproduces itself with different types were examined with the research. The study is carried out among 9th grade students, teachers and school principals in 50 high schools in Istanbul.

Development Analytics took part in preparation of the methodology, sampling and design of the survey instrument for the study. The sample was selected among public high schools in Istanbul and the survey instrument was designed using similar surveys from international studies. The survey included questions on socioeconomic status, educational background, exposure to and witnessing bullying, attitudes about bullying, dating violence and cyber violence. The survey was fielded in May - June 2013 by the Young Life Foundation.