Multidimensional Child Poverty Measurement in Nigeria

Poverty

2022 - Ongoing

​

Child poverty is a significant issue in Nigeria as a considerable share of the children are living in monetary poverty or multi-dimensional poverty in the country. This study will aim to measure and analyse multidimensional child poverty in Nigeria using UNICEF’s Multiple Overlapping Deprivation Analysis (MODA) methodology and will strengthen the capacity of the Nigerian stakeholders to carry out this type of analysis. The analysis will be carried out using the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2016-2017 and the most recent MICS, which is for the year 2021. The study will focus on understanding the dimensions and indicators that the children are deprived in Nigeria and identifying the proportion of children who are in multidimensional poverty and their profiles in terms of geographical, household, and individual characteristics. The study will further highlight the changes in the share of children deprived in each dimension and indicator and multidimensional child poverty in the last five years (between 2016 and 2021). 

Evaluative Learning Study for Phase III of the Emergency Social Safety Net (ESSN) Assistance for Refugees in Turkey
Refugees, Poverty, Cash Transfers

September 2021 - August 2022

​

The overall goal of this study is to generate an evidence base on refugees’ income sources and the ESSN’s effect on socioeconomic vulnerability as well as people’s capacity to cope. Furthermore, this study will also provide capacity support and strengthening expertise in quantitative and qualitative methodologies and improving metrics for IFRC.In this capacity, this study will rely on i) conducting a desk review, ii) carrying out quantitative data analysis using several existing micro level datasets to understand refugees’ main income sources, socioeconomic vulnerability, and coping strategies pre-COVID and during COVID, iii) carrying out qualitative data analysis using existing data from FGDs that have been conducted by IFRC and TRC to understand the changes in refugees’ income sources pre-COVID and during COVID and to provide in-depth insights into their vulnerability and coping strategies during COVID-19, iv) conducting capacity building workshops to strengthen knowledge and expertise regarding qualitative and quantitative research methods and tools, and to provide useful metrics for the ESSN III programme to track income more reliably in Turkey.

​

📖 Download the Report 

Targeting Analysis Service for the Emergency Social Safety Net (ESSN) Assistance for Refugees in Turkey

Targeting, Poverty

September 2021 - Ongoing

​

This work aims to provide technical expertise and guidance on the humanitarian analysis of the needs, capacities, and vulnerabilities of the ESSN programme applicants, and to process this information to identify potential adaptations to the programme design around the targeting approach/criteria.  The consultancy service is expected to provide contextualised analysis, fostering the use of available data by translating it in a way that easily informs decision-making by combining statistical knowledge with an in-depth understanding of humanitarian programming and design. Ultimately, it is expected to link the contextualised analysis with wider humanitarian practices and perspectives from other contexts.

The analysis will focus on leveraging internal monitoring and learning on the programme by utilising relevant programmatic datasets from the ESSN – including post-distribution monitoring, and the Intersectoral Vulnerability Framework and Survey for Refugees in Turkey – along with reviewing options for targeting adaptations to the existing demographic and household criteria serving as proxies for vulnerability. This could include adaptations to the existing targeting approach, criteria, type/amount of payments, among other factors while taking into consideration the existing needs, vulnerabilities, capacities of people as well as financial parameters and wider strategic considerations.  

Multiple Overlapping Deprivation Analysis (MODA) for Azerbaijan

Poverty

2021 - Ongoing

​

Development Analytics will be supporting UNICEF Azerbaijan country office in piloting MODA and preparing a comprehensive multidimensional poverty report. In this role, we will be supporting the State Statistical Committee (SSC) of the Republic of Azerbaijan to pilot Multiple Overlapping Deprivation Analysis (MODA) by using existing data from the household surveys of the SSC and adding missing modules to the standard household questionnaires. The main purpose of the study is to improve the quality of child poverty estimation in the country, to support national efforts, policies, programmes to further improve children’s welfare in the country, and support the SDG monitoring and reporting process.

Specific objectives include:

• to support the SSC to identify the dimensions and indicators of the MODA;

• to guide the relevant staff of the SSC on concepts, definitions, and methodology of carrying out multidimensional child poverty analysis, including MODA;

• to work with the relevant SSC staff to develop the analysis plan, including the selection of variables from Household Budget Survey (HBS) that should be used in the analysis and identify missing variables that should be included in the coming rounds of the HBS;

• draft the report structure and writing of multidimensional child poverty sections;

• provide all guidance and supporting documents to the SSC to develop national capacities to analyse and measure multidimensional poverty, with a specific focus on child poverty.

Exploring the Use of Digital ID and Big Data for the Financial Inclusion of Refugees in Istanbul

Refugees, Financial Inclusion, Digital Identification

July 2020 - July 2022

​

The financial inclusion of Syrian refugees is one of the vital issues of the Turkish economy. Both as employees and entrepreneurs, Syrian refugees, have been contributing to the economy; however, they face various challenges in their daily lives vis-a-vis authorities and financial institutions.  In response to the Syrian Refugee Crisis, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development ("EBRD") has developed a Refugee Crisis Response Programme. This study is designed under this Programme, and the overall objective of the study is to support the EBRD's efforts in improving the financial inclusion of refugee entrepreneurs in Turkey. Better access to financing opportunities is likely to help Syrian enterprises grow their business and thus, accelerate the Turkish economy's growth and increase export potential.

​The study aims to shed light on the current situation about the financial inclusion of refugee entrepreneurs, determine how Digital Identification Technologies might play a role in refugees' access to finance, and identify global approaches and best practices regarding refugees' access to finance. The study will also provide the design of a pilot project with potential partners to employ these tech-based solutions to support refugee entrepreneurs.

Annual Update of the Targeting System for Multipurpose Cash and Food Assistance in Lebanon

Poverty, Cash Transfers, Targeting, Refugees, Proxy Means Testing

April 2018 - Ongoing

 

Since 2018, the Development Analytics team has developed, calibrated, and assessed the accuracy of the proxy-means targeting model for the annual unconditional cash assistance programs to Syrian refugees in Lebanon. This study takes a mixed-methods approach the developing the targeting system. On the quantitative side, the study relies on recently developed econometric tools that use a combination of survey and administrative data and out-of-sample testing methods to target the vulnerable population in an environment with imperfect information on the vulnerability. The qualitative work harnesses extensive interaction with field staff and refugees to identify the core challenges with the systematic quantitative approach to help develop a grievance redress mechanism for implementing agencies.

​

Download the Paper: "Targeting humanitarian aid using administrative data: Model design and validation"

Strategic Mid-term Evaluation of The Facility for Refugees in Turkey

Refugees, Evaluation

March 2019 - June 2021

​

The Facility for Refugees in Turkey (the Facility) is a EUR 6 billion mechanism designed to share Turkey’s burden of hosting close to four million refugees. Organised in two tranches, it coordinates the EU refugee response, focusing on humanitarian assistance and protection, education, health, socio-economic support, and migration management. The evaluation’s scope includes all actions funded and instruments mobilised under Facility Tranche I (EUR 3 billion) between 2015/16 and 2020. The purpose of the evaluation is: (i) To provide an overall assessment of the performance of the Facility to date, focusing on intermediate results measured against its objectives, (ii) To provide lessons learned and actionable recommendations to improve current and future actions and strategy. The Facility includes portfolios of humanitarian and non-humanitarian interventions across four sectors – education; health; socio-economic support; and protection, which the evaluation covers in a series of standalone sector reports. This evaluation was implemented by Landell Mills Ltd. with support from Development Analytics responsible for organizing and executing the fieldwork (accompanied by international experts) in Turkey and providing local expertise through its national experts for this study. Development Analytics also provided quantitative and qualitative data analysis for the sector reports and provided writing support in the preparation of the sector reports, co-leading the sector report for socioeconomic support. 

​

📖 Download the Executive Summary

📖 Download the Main Report 

📖 Download Sector Report (Education)

📖 Download Sector Report (Health)

📖 Download Sector Report (Socio-Economic Support)

📖 Download Sector Report (Protection)

📖 Download Annexes

Microsimulation Model for Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 on Child Poverty in St Lucia

Poverty, Multi-dimensional Poverty, Impact of COVID-19, Microsimulations, Cash Transfers

​

May 2020 - February 2021

 

Poverty is already high in St Lucia with 25.0 percent of the population living under the national poverty line.  Along with the rest of the world, St Lucia is currently dealing with the socio-economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to provide estimates on the impact of COVID-19 on monetary and multidimensional poverty in Saint Lucia, through various channels including the labour market, health and education. After identifying household-level shocks and re-estimating poverty figures based on this model, the distribution of cash transfers to various target groups are modelled, and their ‘alleviating’ impact on poverty rates are estimated along with total cost and cost-effectiveness of each scenario.

The study estimates that monetary poverty and inequality increase across the country after the shocks and the pandemic poses considerable non-monetary threats to people’s lives, which go beyond short-medium run harm. Cash transfers are found to be helpful in alleviating poverty but the transfer levels should be at a considerable level to achieve a meaningful impact.

Assessment of the Socio-Economic Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Children and Families in Turkey

Poverty, Impact of COVID-19, Microsimulations, Cash Transfers

​

June 2020 - November 2020

 

COVID-19 pandemic, apart from the health-related challenges, has a serious socio-economic impact on households. This study provides estimations of the possible impact of the current crisis on both household and child poverty in Turkey through the labour market channel. The model aims to predict the possible impact of COVID-19 on household labour income and hence household expenditure that will decrease as a result of loss of jobs or reduced labour income. The model assumes that some types of jobs/sectors may be more vulnerable than others to this shock. After estimating the impact of the shock on household income and expenditures, the same model is used to estimate the possible impact of cash transfers to various target groups to alleviate this negative income effect. The impact of cash transfers on outcomes such as overall poverty, child poverty and inequality are estimated along with the total cost and cost-effectiveness of each scenario. We simulate 7 different cash transfer scenarios in two different transfer levels (low and high). The transfer can be per household or per child and the targeted groups change from being universal to targeting by household expenditure level. The microsimulation makes use of Household Budget Survey 2018 (collected by TURKSTAT) as the main data source.

​

📖 Download the Paper

Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 on Child Poverty in Georgia using a Micro-Simulation Model

Poverty, Impact of COVID-19, Microsimulations, Cash Transfers

​

May 2020 - September 2020

 

Georgia is forecasted to experience a significant recession because of the pandemic and given high rates of vulnerability to poverty in the country; this could have a substantial impact on overall poverty and child poverty rates. This study aims to provide estimates of the effects of COVID-19 on household and child poverty in Georgia, through its impact on the labour market. The study, apart from estimating the poverty impact of the COVID crisis, also estimates the poverty-reducing impact of several cash transfer scenarios targeting different groups in the population and at varying benefit levels. Cash transfer scenarios range from being per household to being per child and the targeted groups change from being universal to targeting a subgroup of the population. Coverage, benefit incidence, total cost and cost-effectiveness of each scenario are also estimated along with several other indicators. One of the outputs of the study is an interactive simulation model that will enable policymakers to look at the poverty impact and cost of varying levels of the cash benefit under different scenarios. 

​

📖 Download the Report ​

​

Interactive Simulation Tool

ESSN Mid-Term Review 2018/2019

Poverty

October 2019 - February 2020

 

Turkey currently hosts more refugees than any other country in the world. There are 4 million registered refugees in Turkey, of whom 3.6 million are Syrian refugees. The ESSN launched in December 2016 with the objective of stabilising or improving living standards of the most vulnerable out-of-camp refugee households. The ESSN was designed in conjunction with the Government of Turkey and is implemented through a partnership between WFP, TK, the Ministry of Family, Labour, and Social Services (MoFLSS) and Halkbank.

The World Food Programme (WFP) Turkey Country Office on behalf of the ESSN stakeholders commissioned this mid-term review of the Emergency Social Safety Net (ESSN), funded by the Directorate General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (DG ECHO). The first phase of the ESSN (ESSN 1) ran from September 2016, with roll-out starting in early 2017; while ESSN 2 commenced in January 2018 and will run until March 2020. This review covers the period from May 2018 to November 2019. In collaboration with Oxford Policy Management (OPM), Development Analytics was involved in organising fieldwork, carrying out focus group discussions and key informant interviews, and conducting quantitative and qualitative data analysis for the study.

​

📖 Download the Report 

Reform of Unconditional Cash Transfer Programme (Ajutor Social) of Moldova: Simulation and Costing of Options to Improve Coverage for Vulnerable Households

Poverty

October 2018 - September 2019

 

This study considers potential reforms to Ajutor Social (AS), Moldova’s national targeted cash transfer programme in place since 2008 which presently covers around 7 percent of the population.  The research aims to help the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Social Protection (MHLSP) be better equipped to consider how to reform AS to improve coverage for single parents, large families, and households with members who have a disability. Together, these three types of households compose a group of ‘priority households’ for the analysis of how AS can be reformed to increase coverage across them.

Overseas Development Institute partnered with Development Analytics to address two fundamental questions on behalf of UNICEF and MHLSP:

• How can Ajutor Social be Reformed to Improve Coverage of and Outcomes for A Priority Group of Vulnerable Households?”

• How can the costs of reform of Ajutor Social be estimated and what ‘costing model’ can be produced to demonstrate these?’

​The research uses the micro-data from the Moldovan Household Budget Survey (MHBS) for 2017, the last year of that survey that contained a special module on claiming and receiving AS.  The data from MHBS 2017 was used to construct a micro-simulation model that replicated the rules for entitlement and award of AS and allowed simulations of alternative rules of entitlement based on policy reform scenarios.​​

Thematic Studies on the Extension of the CCTE Programme to Refugees in Turkey

Refugees, Cash Transfers, Education

May 2018 - February 2019

 

As of 2018, over 3.8 million Syrians were under temporary protection of whom 1.8 million of them are children. The magnitude of the problem and a high number of Syrians in the country required establishing various social protection programmes. The Government of Turkey along with UNICEF and other partners have put a significant amount of effort as a response to this crisis. One of these actions is the Conditional Cash Transfer for Education (CCTE). This CCTE programme has cash and a protection component where families receive financial support for every child attending school. This study analysed the key aspects related to the access and effects of the programme for working children, including seasonal agricultural labour, ii) boys and girls, iii) children of different age groups (1-4th grade, 5-8th grade, 9-12th grade). The aim of the study was to understand the supply and demand-side bottlenecks that hinder these children’s access to CCTE programme and payments as well as Child Protection visits. To this end, 23 FGDs with children and their parents were conducted in three provinces, Istanbul, Gaziantep, and Adana in addition to 14 key informant interviews with programme implementers and MONE staff in these provinces. 

Myanmar Dry Zone Social Protection Project Endline Assessment

Poverty

May 2018 - December 2018

 

”Dry Zone Social Protection Project” is implemented by HelpAge International in collaboration with the Mandalay YMCA to help vulnerable households in the Dry Zone to cope and manage risks. This three-year project aims to expand social protection by enhancing informal community-based mechanisms and practices; strengthening government and community capacity to protect the poor; and delivering cash benefits to vulnerable groups (people with disabilities and older people). The project ends in December 2018. The locations of the project are a total of 180 villages with 30 villages in each of six target townships of two regions of Myanmar. At the beginning of the project, two different baseline surveys were collected and end-line surveys will be collected to measure the change in vulnerability and social protection over the course of the project and also measure the impact of the cash transfers. In collaboration with ODI, Development Analytics assists with the end line assessment's study design, conducting data analysis, and reporting on the findings. 

Child Deprivation Analysis for Azerbaijan

Poverty

April 2018 - October 2018

 

This project focuses on analysing Child Deprivation Surveys from 2015 and 2017 collected by the State Statistical Committee (SSC) of the Republic of Azerbaijan, to measure household and child deprivation and risk of poverty, and provide a comprehensive analysis of the patterns and trends across both surveys. Additionally, currently used methodological approaches and tools (sampling, questionnaires, calculation, etc.) to estimate the relevance of the methodology of measuring child deprivation/poverty in the country will be assessed.

The study aims to provide recommendations on the improvement of data collection and measurement strategy of child deprivation and poverty to be able to respond to national priorities and SDG monitoring and reporting needs. Practical recommendations on the improvement of policies and programs for children will also be presented. The study will be helpful in providing insights on what constitutes good economic and social policy for children and in justifying the importance of the process of developing child-centred budgets and policies.

Decentralised Evaluation of the ECHO funded Emergency Social Safety Net (ESSN) in Turkey

Cash Transfers, Refugees

May 2017 - April 2018

 

Turkey has the largest refugee population of any country in the world with 2.8 million Syrian refugees currently residing in Turkey. The Emergency Social Safety Net Programme (ESSN) will provide at least 1 million refugees with an unconditional and unrestricted cash transfer of 100 TL per month making it the largest ever EU-supported humanitarian cash transfer programme. The programme is available to all foreigners with refugee status who live off-camp and are under temporary protection or international protection. The programme is funded by the European Commission through European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (ECHO) and is implemented through the Turkish government social welfare system by means of an ATM cash card. The WFP is a key stakeholder in the project and worked closely with ECHO to design and implement the programme. The interim evaluation assesses the first year of the programme’s implementation and is aimed to be used to inform decision-making in the second year. In collaboration with Oxford Policy Management, Development Analytics was involved in organising fieldwork, carrying out focus group discussions and key informant interviews, and conducting qualitative data analysis.

​

📖 Download the Report 

Indonesia - Stock-take of Capacity Development for Local Service Delivery

Capacity building, Poverty

June 2016 - May 2017

 

The overall objective of this project is to assist the World Bank Indonesia Decentralisation program to improve the quality of support for district-level capacity development. As Indonesia transitions from a lower-middle-income country to an upper-middle-income country and beyond, the challenge of improving service delivery has become more complex. The World Bank is providing advisory services and analytics to support the government to put in place new performance, accountability, and capacity development systems as part of these reforms.  The stocktake is expected to contribute both conceptual thinkings as well as an evidence base that can enable the effective programming of decentralization support as well as providing broader guidance/ learning for WB colleagues working in related fields.   In this way, it is envisioned that the stocktake will contribute to a revision and update their “theory of change” to include district (and village) driven change processes as an integral part of creating the conditions for service delivery improvement.

Benefit Incidence of Fuel Subsidies in Madagascar and Recommendations for Child-Friendly Reallocation

Poverty

July 2015 - November 2015

 

Fuel subsidies lead to environmental damage through inefficiencies in energy use, they are a burden for the public budget and moreover, they are regressive, benefiting the already better-off households. Despite, these negative qualities, energy subsidies are still implemented throughout the World. Post-tax energy subsidies in the World are estimated to be 5.3 trillion USD while fuel subsidies alone, are estimated to be 1.5 trillion USD, making up 1.8 percent of the global GDP in 2015. Although fuel subsidies are regressive, fuel subsidy reforms impact the poor the hardest. Previous experience with fuel subsidy reforms around the World shows that poverty increases as a result of fuel subsidy removal if it is not mitigated with redistribution efforts like cash transfers. In this study, using ENSOMD 2012 data set, we show that in Madagascar, fuel subsidies are highly regressive. Gasoline and diesel consumption is very rare in the households in the bottom 60 percent while kerosene is commonly consumed by households from all income groups. We find that poor households are affected the least if kerosene price remains unchanged. Nevertheless, different price increase scenarios including a change in the price of kerosene do not increase poverty by more than 1 percentage point. Instead reallocating the gains from the fuel subsidy reform to children aged 0-4 or 0-14 uniformly is found to decrease poverty rates between 2.4 to 4.6 percentage points.In Madagascar, the government decided to eliminate fuel subsidies gradually in June 2014. Yet, the price control mechanism has not been dropped yet. Given the sharp fall in international oil prices in the last year, a window of opportunity has opened for Madagascar and countries alike to adopt a liberalized pricing system and abolish fuel subsidies.

​

📖 Download the Paper

Case Study on the Integrated Social Assistance MIS System in Turkey

Poverty and Social Assistance

April 2015 - June 2015

 

Turkey’s Integrated Social Assistance Information System (ISAS-BUTUNLESIK) serves an important integrative function. Launched in 2009, ISAS enables the centralized collection of applications from poor and vulnerable households from each of the country’s Social Assistance and Solidarity Foundations and integrates them into a Single Registry. The ISAS links applicant data to other databases in 16 institutions, connecting 56 databases and uses the information to help determine eligibility for all SA programs. In 2013, 8 million households and 30 million people were enrolled in the Single Registry. This country case study note is prepared for the World Bank and the General Directorate of Social Assistance under the Ministry of Family and Social Policy of the Republic of Turkey.  The case study presents the evolution of the integrated social assistance targeting system and includes: (i) an overview of the national policies, programmes, and the agencies in social protection; (ii) MIS scope and functions (including collaboration across government agencies); (iii) the strategy and history of the implementation of ICT programmes; (iv) data management and consolidation; (vi) security and privacy issues, (vii) the composition and organization of the IT unit within the SP agency and MIS maintenance issues; and (viii) upcoming reform plans and lessons learned. 

Impact Evaluation of the Hüsnü M. Özyeğin Rural Development Program in Eastern Turkey

Rural Development, Impact Evaluation, Aid Effectiveness

December 2008 - March 2014

 

Experimental impact evaluation study and household survey instrument covering modules on agricultural activities, migration, household assets, income, and consumption, time use, social networks, access to education and health services, and women’s empowerment. Sample size: 6 treatment and 6 control villages 326 households in the baseline (Dec 2008) and 389 households in panel (Dec 2010) surveyed. Third survey round in treatment and control villages scheduled for December 2013. Fieldwork funded by the Hüsnü M. Özyeğin Foundation. Design of the impact evaluation study, the design of the survey instrument, training of enumerators in the field, training of data entry staff, econometric analysis, and write-up of baseline and panel findings. 

Socioeconomic Impact of Mining on Local Communities in Africa

Welfare and Poverty Measurement, Africa

March 2014 - June 2014

 

The analysis focused on the “Socioeconomic Impact of Mining on Local Communities in Africa” and provided econometric analysis for 2 case countries: Tanzania and Mali. Our research question is whether local communities benefit from mining activity. More specifically, we look at the impact of the extractive activity on households’ welfare and children’s nutrition and education indicators. We utilize a rich dataset where data are coming from various sources such as Demographic Health Surveys (DHS), Household Budget Surveys (HBS), and Censuses of Population of the two countries. We also use the information on the location, opening date, and actual production of mines in Tanzania and Mali. According to the data provided by the World Bank on the operation of mines in these two countries, the first mine started operating in Tanzania in 1998 and in Mali in 1997. The study will follow a diffs-in-diffs methodology looking at outcome variables before the setting up of the mines and about a decade after the mines have been in existence. In order to have a good understanding of the impact of gold extraction on the outcomes different specification methods are going to be employed throughout the analysis regarding the choice of treatment units, the treatment variable, and control units. 

​

📖 Download the Paper

📖 Download the Full Report