Social Policy Analysis
A large part of our policy work is focused on analysis that provides insights for policymakers on the most binding constraints faced in a particular setting. Our Interactive Social Policy Simulator (ISPS) is tailor-made to suit clients’ unique research and policy development questions. The easy-to-use software and apps that we design provide policymakers with the ability to visualise and experiment with the results of household surveys and other large-scale datasets, change parameters, adjust programme inputs (based on cost and cost-effectiveness measures), and predict the probable outcomes of various social policy scenarios. These unique tools make it possible for policymakers to play with statistical models without the need for advanced coding techniques. Clients can interact directly with data from the field, while observing the social impact of different policy scenarios and fine-tuning policy decisions. Our social policy ISPS tool thus empower policymakers to design better and more cost-effective policies.
Assessment of Potential Impact of Different Social Protection Measures on Child Deprivation and Poverty in Georgia
Poverty, Microsimulations, Cash Transfers
August 2023 - Ongoing
A significant portion of children in Georgia faces monetary poverty. In 2022, while the overall poverty rate for the population stood at 15.6%, the child poverty rate was notably higher, reaching 20.4%. Material deprivation is also a prevalent issue among Georgian children, with 37.8% of them lacking at least 3 out of 16 essential items (including for instance (i) fresh fruits and vegetables daily, (ii) access to internet, etc.). Given this background, this study aims to better understand the potential effects of different social protection interventions (as cash transfers), in Georgia, on child poverty as well as material deprivation while also estimating the cost implications of the interventions. To accomplish this, microsimulation models will be constructed by utilizing nationally representative surveys. Additionally, an interactive simulation tool will be created, leveraging the Interactive Social Policy Simulator (ISPS) developed by Development Analytics. The tool will perform real-time calculations based on policy parameter selections and present the results in a dynamic and user-friendly manner through tables and figures. Its primary objective will be to empower policymakers in their endeavor to efficiently design at-scale social policy programs.
Developing a Shock Responsive Social Protection Model for Children in Türkiye in the Aftermath of the Earthquakes using the Interactive Social Policy Simulator (ISPS)
Poverty, Earthquake Response
March 2023 - April 2023
On February 6, 2023, Türkiye was struck by two devastating earthquakes, affecting 11 provinces and a population of 14 million people, including 1.7 million Syrian refugees. As a response to the recent major earthquakes, UNICEF Türkiye plans to design and implement a cash transfer program with a budget of at least $40 million as part of the United Nations Flash Appeal and UNICEF Humanitarian Action for Children Appeal. In this capacity, this study aims to generate potential impact and cost scenarios for different cash transfer options to inform programmatic options in response to the earthquake and broader poverty reduction approaches. The study's initial outputs were used to develop a business case that demonstrates the added value and models of cash transfer programs in the short term and will assist technical preparations and advocacy of UNICEF vis-a-vis the government, donors, and International Financial Institutions (IFIs) in the medium term. In the scope of the study, using the Survey of Income and Living Conditions 2019, a microsimulation model is built. Using the model, the potential impact of the earthquakes on household poverty and child poverty and the poverty-alleviating impact of cash transfers are estimated. An interactive social policy simulator (ISPS) is also designed to allow UNICEF to see the results of cash transfer scenarios interactively by choosing from various targeting and transfer level options.
Multidimensional Child Poverty Measurement in Nigeria
October 2022 - Ongoing
Child poverty is a significant issue in Nigeria as a considerable share of the children are living in monetary poverty or multi-dimensional poverty in the country. This study will aim to measure and analyse multidimensional child poverty in Nigeria using UNICEF’s Multiple Overlapping Deprivation Analysis (MODA) methodology and will strengthen the capacity of the Nigerian stakeholders to carry out this type of analysis. The analysis will be carried out using the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2016-2017 and the most recent MICS, which is for the year 2021. The study will focus on understanding the dimensions and indicators that the children are deprived in Nigeria and identifying the proportion of children who are in multidimensional poverty and their profiles in terms of geographical, household, and individual characteristics. The study will further highlight the changes in the share of children deprived in each dimension and indicator and multidimensional child poverty in the last five years (between 2016 and 2021).
Documentation of Education Response in Turkey during the Covid-19 Pandemic and its Effect on Children's Access to and Retention in Education
October 2021 - December 2022
This study aims (i) to understand and document the policies implemented so far, the challenges faced by children, teachers and schools during the extended period of school closures in Turkey and (ii) to estimate the impact of the COVID pandemic on children’s education outcomes and identify risk groups.
The study uses a mixed-methods approach to review and analyse the existing data and documents while also collecting primary qualitative data from stakeholders and experts. The methodological tools that have been used for the study are (i) Desk review, (ii) Quantitative Data Analysis (Analysis of DHS 2018 and PISA 2018 datasets) and (iii) Qualitative Data Collection and Analysis through KIIs with Stakeholders. In the absence of primary data collected regarding the current situation on children’s learning outcomes, dropout rates or engagement in child labour, simulations and estimations on these indicators using existing household level datasets and identifying the characteristics of children who are most at risk are presented to highlight the degree of the problem and the child groups that are likely to be most affected.
Targeting Analysis Service for the Emergency Social Safety Net (ESSN) Assistance for Refugees in Turkey
September 2021 - August 2022
This work aims to provide technical expertise and guidance on the humanitarian analysis of the needs, capacities, and vulnerabilities of the ESSN programme applicants, and to process this information to identify potential adaptations to the programme design around the targeting approach/criteria. The consultancy service is expected to provide contextualised analysis, fostering the use of available data by translating it in a way that easily informs decision-making by combining statistical knowledge with an in-depth understanding of humanitarian programming and design. Ultimately, it is expected to link the contextualised analysis with wider humanitarian practices and perspectives from other contexts.
The analysis will focus on leveraging internal monitoring and learning on the programme by utilising relevant programmatic datasets from the ESSN – including post-distribution monitoring, and the Intersectoral Vulnerability Framework and Survey for Refugees in Turkey – along with reviewing options for targeting adaptations to the existing demographic and household criteria serving as proxies for vulnerability. This could include adaptations to the existing targeting approach, criteria, type/amount of payments, among other factors while taking into consideration the existing needs, vulnerabilities, capacities of people as well as financial parameters and wider strategic considerations.
Multiple Overlapping Deprivation Analysis (MODA) for Azerbaijan
August 2021 - February 2023
Development Analytics will be supporting UNICEF Azerbaijan country office in piloting MODA and preparing a comprehensive multidimensional poverty report. In this role, we will be supporting the State Statistical Committee (SSC) of the Republic of Azerbaijan to pilot Multiple Overlapping Deprivation Analysis (MODA) by using existing data from the household surveys of the SSC and adding missing modules to the standard household questionnaires. The main purpose of the study is to improve the quality of child poverty estimation in the country, to support national efforts, policies, programmes to further improve children’s welfare in the country, and support the SDG monitoring and reporting process.
Specific objectives include:
to support the SSC to identify the dimensions and indicators of the MODA;
to guide the relevant staff of the SSC on concepts, definitions, and methodology of carrying out multidimensional child poverty analysis, including MODA;
to work with the relevant SSC staff to develop the analysis plan, including the selection of variables from Household Budget Survey (HBS) that should be used in the analysis and identify missing variables that should be included in the coming rounds of the HBS;
draft the report structure and writing of multidimensional child poverty sections;
provide all guidance and supporting documents to the SSC to develop national capacities to analyse and measure multidimensional poverty, with a specific focus on child poverty.
Exploring the Use of Digital ID and Big Data for the Financial Inclusion of Refugees in Istanbul
Refugees, Financial Inclusion, Digital Identification
July 2021 - July 2022
The financial inclusion of Syrian refugees is one of the vital issues of the Turkish economy. Both as employees and entrepreneurs, Syrian refugees, have been contributing to the economy; however, they face various challenges in their daily lives vis-a-vis authorities and financial institutions. In response to the Syrian Refugee Crisis, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development ("EBRD") has developed a Refugee Crisis Response Programme. This study is designed under this Programme, and the overall objective of the study is to support the EBRD's efforts in improving the financial inclusion of refugee entrepreneurs in Turkey. Better access to financing opportunities is likely to help Syrian enterprises grow their business and thus, accelerate the Turkish economy's growth and increase export potential.
The study aims to shed light on the current situation about the financial inclusion of refugee entrepreneurs, determine how Digital Identification Technologies might play a role in refugees' access to finance, and identify global approaches and best practices regarding refugees' access to finance. The study will also provide the design of a pilot project with potential partners to employ these tech-based solutions to support refugee entrepreneurs.
Microsimulation Model for Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 on Child Poverty in St Lucia
Poverty, Multi-dimensional poverty, Impact of COVID-19, Microsimulations, Cash transfers
May 2020 - February 2021
COVID-19 pandemic, apart from the health-related challenges, has serious socio-economic impact on households. With a monetary poverty rate at 25% and multidimensional poverty at about 24.2%, Saint Lucia could be affected strongly by the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to provide estimates on the impact of COVID-19 on monetary and multidimensional poverty in Saint Lucia, through various channels including labour market, health and education. After identifying household-level shocks and re-estimating poverty figures based on this model, distribution of cash transfers to various target groups will be modelled and their ‘alleviating’ impact on poverty rates will be estimated.
Assessment of the Socio-Economic impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Children and Families in Turkey
Poverty, Impact of COVID-19, Microsimulations, Cash transfers
June 2020 - November 2020
COVID-19 pandemic, apart from the health-related challenges, has a serious socio-economic impact on households. The pandemic is predicted to cause the worst economic recession in decades with a forecasted 5.2 percent contraction in global GDP. Turkey is forecasted to experience a significant recession as a result of the pandemic as well. In 2020, the ECA region as a whole is forecasted to have a 4.7 percent and Turkey a 3.8 percent GDP contraction. This study aims to analyse the possible impact of the current crisis on both household and child poverty, through the labour market channel. The model will analyse the possible impact of COVID-19 on household labour income and hence household expenditure that will decrease as a result of job loss or reduced labour income. After estimating the impact of the shock on household income and expenditures, the same model will be used to estimate the possible impact of cash transfers to various target groups to alleviate this negative income effect. The impact of cash transfers on outcomes such as overall poverty, child poverty, and inequality will be estimated along with the total cost and cost-effectiveness of each scenario. The microsimulation will make use of Household Budget Survey 2018 (collected by TURKSTAT) as the main data source.
Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 on Child Poverty in Georgia using a Micro-Simulation Model
Poverty, Impact of COVID-19, Microsimulations, Cash transfers
May 2020 - September 2020
COVID-19 pandemic, apart from the health-related challenges, has a serious socio-economic impact on the households. The pandemic is predicted to cause the worst economic recession in decades with a forecasted 5.2 per cent contraction in global GDP. ILO recently estimated that the pandemic would cause job losses equal to 195 million full-time jobs. Due to the contraction in economic activities, globally, an estimated 42-66 million children could fall into poverty.
Georgia is forecasted to experience a significant recession because of the pandemic and given high rates of vulnerability to poverty in the country; this will have a substantial impact on overall poverty and child poverty rates. This study aims to provide estimates of the effects of COVID-19 on household and child poverty in Georgia, through its impact on the labour market. The study, apart from estimating the poverty impact of the COVID-19 crisis, also estimates the poverty-reducing impact of several cash transfer scenarios targeting different groups in the population and at varying benefit levels. One of the outputs of the study will be an interactive simulation model that will enable policymakers to look at the poverty impact and cost of varying levels of the cash benefit under different scenarios.
Enhancing Advocacy Capacities of Youth CSOs in Turkey: Guiding CSOs through Research
Youth, Civic Participation, Advocacy, Trainings
April 2019 - October 2020
This project aims to provide background research on the situation of young people who are “neither in education nor in employment or training” (NEET), highlight CSO models in Turkey that address this problem, and strengthen the capacity of CSOs working in the field of youth empowerment. By analysing the situation, building capacity at youth CSOs, and introducing their models to experts at relevant ministries; the project aims to enrich the ongoing policy discussions on the issue of NEET. The project has three main activity packages: (i) Building knowledge and research with a baseline research study, (ii) Training and capacity building workshops in youth CSOs and preparation of a handbook, (iii) Dissemination, advocacy, and networking workshops.
The project is led by Development Analytics with Hayal Ortakları Derneği (YGA) as a co-applicant. The project is funded by the European Union under the Grant Scheme for Civil Society Support Programme.
Thematic Studies on the Extension of the CCTE Programme to Refugees in Turkey
Refugees, Cash transfers, Education
May 2018 - February 2019
In Turkey, as of 2018, over 3.8 million Syrians were under temporary protection of whom 1.8 million were children. The magnitude of the problem and a high number of Syrians in the country required establishing various social protection programmes. The Government of Turkey along with UNICEF and other partners have put a significant amount of effort as a response to this crisis. One of these actions is the Conditional Cash Transfer for Education (CCTE). The CCTE programme for refugees has cash and a protection component where families receive financial support for every child attending school.
This study had the objective to understand the supply and demand-side bottlenecks that hinder children’s access to the CCTE programme and payment as well as Child Protection visits. To this end the key aspects related to the access and effects of the programme were analysed for (i) working children, including seasonal agricultural workers, ii) boys and girls, iii) children of different age groups (1-4th grade, 5-8th grade, 9-12th grade) and (iv) out of school children. Qualitative data was collected through 23 FGDs with children and their parents in three provinces, Istanbul, Gaziantep, and Adana in addition to 14 key informant interviews with programme implementers and MoNE staff in these provinces.
Annual Re-estimation of the Proxy Means Test Regression Model Used to Target Refugees for Multipurpose Cash in Lebanon
Poverty, Cash Transfers, Targeting, Refugees, Proxy Means Testing
April 2018 - October 2019
To determine the socio-economic vulnerability of the population of concern and subsequently target families to benefit from cash and food assistance programmes, UNHCR, WFP, and partners in relevant sectors use an econometric formula, predicting expenditure (proxy means testing) of refugee households in Lebanon. The Basic Assistance and Food Security Sectors use these predictions as the Desk Formula to select beneficiaries for multi-purpose cash and food assistance programmes. To ensure that up-to-date information is feeding into the targeting methodology and that there is consistency of implementation between UNHCR’s multipurpose cash programme, WFP’s food assistance programmes and programmes of relevant sector partners, the Desk Formula is re-estimated on an annual basis.
In 2018, Development Analytics re-estimated the Desk Formula and thereby refined the targeting approach for multi-purpose cash and food assistance interventions to meet food and other basic needs of refugees in Lebanon. Development Analytics has been re-contracted for the 2019 annual re-estimation.
Reform of Unconditional Cash Transfer Programme (Ajutor Social) of Moldova: Simulation and Costing of Options to Improve Coverage for Vulnerable Households
October 2018 - September 2019
This study considers potential reforms to Ajutor Social (AS), Moldova’s national targeted cash transfer programme in place since 2008 which covers around 7 percent of the population. The research aims to help the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Social Protection (MHLSP) be better equipped to consider how to reform AS to improve coverage for single parents, large families, and households with members who have a disability. Together, these three types of households compose a group of ‘priority households’ for the analysis of how AS can be reformed to increase coverage across them.
Overseas Development Institute partnered with Development Analytics to address two fundamental questions on behalf of UNICEF and MHLSP:
How can ajutor social be reformed to improve coverage of and outcomes for a priority group of vulnerable households?”
How can the costs of reform of Ajutor Social be estimated and what ‘costing model’ can be produced to demonstrate these?
The research uses the micro-data from the Moldovan Household Budget Survey (MHBS) for 2017, the last year of that survey that contained a special module on claiming and receiving AS. The data from MHBS 2017 was used to construct a micro-simulation model that replicated the rules for entitlement and award of AS and allowed simulations of alternative rules of entitlement based on policy reform scenarios.
Case Study on KEDV Women’s Empowerment and Community-Driven Development Model
Female Labour Force Participation
October 2018 - March 2019
The overall objective of this project was to analyse women cooperatives as a development model and reveal the role of the Foundation for the Support of Women’s Work (KEDV) in women’s cooperative movement in Turkey and its implementation model as a case. The study provides a review of (i) the literature to understand recent developments in understanding the role of cooperatives in developing countries, (ii) KEDV’s model, including value statements, processes, internal reports, assessments, and policy documents, (iii) and cooperative case studies to understand the role of KEDV and women in the social cooperative movement in Turkey.
A mixture of a desk review of policy documents, articles, reports, and strategic plans and qualitative fieldwork (i.e. key in-depth-interviews and focus group discussions done with selected women cooperatives) were used to gather data and present findings for this project.
Child Deprivation Analysis for Azerbaijan
April 2018 - October 2018
This study focuses on analysing Child Deprivation Surveys from 2015 and 2017 collected by the State Statistical Committee (SSC) of the Republic of Azerbaijan, to measure household and child deprivation and risk of poverty and provide a comprehensive analysis of the patterns and trends across both surveys. Additionally, currently used methodological approaches and tools (sampling, questionnaires, calculation, etc.) to estimate the relevance of the methodology of measuring child deprivation/poverty in the country have been assessed.
The study aims to provide recommendations on the improvement of data collection and measurement strategy of child deprivation and poverty to be able to respond to national priorities and SDG monitoring and reporting needs. Practical recommendations on the improvement of policies and programs for children have also been provided along with the data analysis.
Breakeven Analysis for Neighbourhood Child Care Centres
Early Childhood Development
April 2018 - June 2018
This study focuses on the feasibility of opening up and running neighbourhood childcare centres in poor and medium-income neighbourhoods in Turkey. Breakeven analysis is employed using different kinds of data sources and different scenarios with respect to centre capacity and subsidy type. In the study (i) a supply-side dataset collected from private childcare centres in 5 provinces in Turkey and (ii) information provided by childcare centres of KEDV are used as two different data sources. Set up costs, operational costs and prices of childcare centres are taken into account in order to estimate the number of months it requires for the childcare centres to pay the set up costs through the prices that they charge (breakeven point). Breakeven point is estimated for childcare centres with different capacity levels and in different subsidy scenarios. The subsidy scenarios include (i) subsidized director salary, (ii) subsidized teacher salaries, (iii) subsidized rent, (iv) both the director and teacher salaries, and the rent are subsidized. The study aims to show the general attractiveness of opening up child care centres in poor or medium-income neighbourhoods from a financial point of view and the kinds of subsidies that would be more helpful in attracting more cooperatives or private entrepreneurs to set up child care centres.
Education of Disadvantaged Children in the OIC: the Key to Escape from Poverty
March 2017 - October 2017
This report focuses on access to education among disadvantaged groups in the member states of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). The report provides an overview of the current status and recent trends in education focusing on access to quality education by poverty status, location, gender, spoken language /ethnicity, and disability status of children as well as policies and programmes to improve access among disadvantaged groups. The main focus is on primary and lower secondary education. The report consists of four parts. (i) An outline of the conceptual framework used in analysing the state of education in OIC countries. (ii) A summary of the state of education across OIC member states. This includes an analysis of trends across and between countries as well as an assessment of which groups are most disadvantaged with respect to access to education. (iii) Case studies for the member states Jordan, Pakistan, Senegal, and Turkey which provide a more detailed assessment of factors affecting education provision in these countries. (iv) Policy recommendations to increase access to education among disadvantaged groups.
Ex-ante Policy Evaluation of Supply and Demand Side Childcare Subsidies
Early Childhood Education and Care, Policy simulations
January 2016 - June 2016
This study presents policy simulations looking at the fiscal implications of a subsidy for the childcare market under various scenarios, and considering its impact on expanding capacity, service utilization, and female employment. The scenarios also present in each case the distributional impact of the subsidy under various modes of delivery of the subsidy (per capita grants to schools vs vouchers etc.). Policy scenarios evaluated in the paper include (i) making municipalities of a certain size liable for providing child care services – though without supporting the operations with central government financing (Scenario 0-1), (ii) provision of an investment grant only (Scenario 2), (iii) provision of an operational grant (with or without a price cap (Scenarios 3-4), (iv) providing a voucher scheme (Scenario 5), and (v) provision of the interaction of an investment grant with an operational grant or a voucher scheme (Scenarios 6-8). The purpose of the policy measures is assumed to be three-fold: (i) to increase the capacity of these services, (ii) to increase accessibility and affordability of services for children from disadvantaged backgrounds, and (iii) to increase female labour force participation by increasing employment rates of mothers who will utilize services as well as creating new employment at these child care centres for care-takers.
Status of Children (Ages 0-6) in Turkey: An Advocacy Campaign Research Study
Early Childhood Development, Education, Health, Nutrition
November 2015 - September 2016
This study presents the status of children in the 0–6 year age group in Turkey, with a focus on a statistical analysis of the current situation and international comparisons of children’s well-being. The study also looks at the existing literature in Turkey, as well as international studies to identify gaps in policies and programs targeting children in this age group. Within the scope of the study, 4 main themes have been covered (i) Child and Family Characteristics, (ii) Child Protection, (iii) Infant and Child Health and Nutrition, and (iv) Early Childhood Education.
Life in Transition Survey- Gender Analysis and Gender Module
Gender, Care Work
November 2016 - August 2017
Gender Analysis using the Life in Transition Survey (LITS III) provides a descriptive analysis of a number of gender-related issues for 34 countries where the survey was collected. The study draws a general picture of gender differences in terms of asset holdings as well as household demand for care and utilization of care services, attitudes, and values on gender-related issues and women’s and men’s entrepreneurial activities.
The Life in Transition Survey (LiTS III) conducted jointly by the World Bank and EBRD is a combined household and attitudinal survey. The third round of LITS was implemented in 2015-2016 in 34 countries, with an average of 1,000 households interviewed per country. Samples are representative of these countries (a total of 51,206 observations). The survey consists of a number of modules including (i) household roster collecting basic information on the members of the household such as their age, level of education, and gender, (ii and iii) assets modules, (iv) a module on attitudes and values, (v) employment module, (vi) unemployment module, (vii) entrepreneurship module, (viii) a module on governance, (ix) a miscellaneous module with questions on various topics including health and the party the individual last voted for and lastly (x) a module on the impact of the crisis.
In LITS III, different from the previous rounds new questions were added (questions on care demand in the household and gender norms), and responses for two of the modules (assets and employment) were collected from a secondary respondent (from the opposite sex) in addition to a primary respondent.
Benefit Incidence of Fuel Subsidies in Madagascar and Recommendations for Child-Friendly Reallocation
July 2015 - November 2015
Fuel subsidies lead to environmental damage through inefficiencies in energy use, they are a burden for the public budget and moreover, they are regressive, benefiting the already better-off households. Despite these negative qualities, energy subsidies are still implemented throughout the world. Post-tax energy subsidies in the world are estimated to be 5.3 trillion USD while fuel subsidies alone, are estimated to be 1.5 trillion USD, making up 1.8 percent of the global GDP in 2015. Although fuel subsidies are regressive, fuel subsidy reforms impact the poor the hardest. Previous experience with fuel subsidy reforms around the world shows that poverty increases as a result of fuel subsidy removal if it is not mitigated with redistribution efforts like cash transfers.
In Madagascar, the government decided to eliminate fuel subsidies gradually in June 2014. Yet, the price control mechanism has not been dropped in the same period. Given the sharp fall in international oil prices in 2014, a window of opportunity has opened for Madagascar and countries alike to adopt a liberalized pricing system and abolish fuel subsidies.
In this study, using ENSOMD 2012 data set, we show that in Madagascar, fuel subsidies are highly regressive. Gasoline and diesel consumption is very rare in the households in the bottom 60 percent while kerosene is commonly consumed by households from all income groups. We find that poor households are affected the least if kerosene price remains unchanged. Nevertheless, different price increase scenarios including a change in the price of kerosene do not increase poverty by more than 1 percentage point. Instead reallocating the gains from the fuel subsidy reform to children aged 0-4 or 0-14 uniformly is found to decrease poverty rates between 2.4 to 4.6 percentage points.
Indonesia - Stock-take of Capacity Development for Local Service Delivery
Capacity Building, Poverty
June 2016 - June 2017
The overall objective of this project was to assist the World Bank Indonesia Decentralisation Program to improve the quality of support for district-level capacity development. As Indonesia transitions from a lower-middle-income country to an upper-middle-income country and beyond, the challenge of improving service delivery has become more complex. The World Bank was providing advisory services and analytics to support the government to put in place new performance, accountability, and capacity development systems as part of these reforms. The stock-take was expected to contribute both evidence base that can enable the effective programming of decentralization support as well as providing broader guidance/ learning for the World Bank colleagues working in related fields. In this way, the stock-take aimed to contribute to a revision and update of their “theory of change” to include district (and village) driven change processes as an integral part of creating the conditions for service delivery improvement.
School to Work Transition in Moldova: Informing Schooling and Jobs Decisions
Youth, Employment, School to Work Transition
August 2015 - November 2015
The main objective of the study “Informing Schooling and Jobs Decisions in Moldova” was to inform ongoing and planned reforms in Moldova that aim to improve labour market outcomes, in particular through better aligning the education system with labour market needs, with a focus on a better understanding of how males and females from different socioeconomic groups form their expectations regarding labour market outcomes and how they make their schooling and employment decisions in relation to these expectations.
For this purpose, both quantitative and qualitative data were collected by the World Bank. This project entailed the qualitative coding and analysis of data from 22 focus groups of young people in vocational schools, junior and secondary schools, universities, recent graduates, as well as parents and teachers.
The main focus for the analysis included: (i) Reasons to choose specific education paths, (ii) Student aspirations, (iii) Perception of the education system, and (iv) the different career orientation activities.
Improving Basic Services Delivery for the Poor in the OIC Member Countries
January 2015 - September 2015
This study focuses on basic service delivery in OIC member countries, covering education, health care, water, sanitation, and electricity sectors. The study presents the situation in the 57 member countries drawing on data collected from various sources and a literature review with regards to the access to the services, service delivery models employed, and financing of the services along with common challenges that are observed in member countries in the delivery of basic services. Apart from the overview of the countries, the report includes in-depth case country studies of Indonesia, Bangladesh, Turkey, and Lebanon on the delivery of basic services, based on a literature review, as well as elite interviews. The report concludes with recommendations for the member countries to improve their basic service delivery models.
Case Study on the Integrated Social Assistance MIS System in Turkey
Poverty, Social Assistance
April 2015 - June 2015
Turkey’s Integrated Social Assistance Information System (ISAS-BUTUNLESIK) serves an important integrative function. Launched in 2009, ISAS enables the centralized collection of applications from poor and vulnerable households from each of the country’s Social Assistance and Solidarity Foundations and integrates them into a Single Registry. The ISAS links applicant data to other databases in 16 institutions, connecting 56 databases and uses the information to help determine eligibility for all SA programs. In 2013, 8 million households and 30 million people were enrolled in the Single Registry. This country case study note is prepared for the World Bank and the General Directorate of Social Assistance under the Ministry of Family and Social Policy of the Republic of Turkey. The case study presents the evolution of the integrated social assistance targeting system and includes: (i) an overview of the national policies, programmes, and the agencies in social protection; (ii) MIS scope and functions (including collaboration across government agencies); (iii) the strategy and history of the implementation of ICT programmes; (iv) data management and consolidation; (vi) security and privacy issues, (vii) the composition and organization of the IT unit within the SP agency and MIS maintenance issues; and (viii) upcoming reform plans and lessons learned.
Demand for Child Care and Elderly Care in Western Balkans and Central Asia: A Cross-Country Qualitative Assessment
Childcare, Elderly Care, Gender
November 2014 - July 2015
This project involved the coding and analysis of the qualitative data that were collected via 66 focus group discussions in seven countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Serbia, Ukraine, Armenia, and the Kyrgyz Republic. The report focuses on women’s care responsibilities in ECA Countries, how the care responsibilities impact women’s lives, as well as their perceptions and demand for centre-based childcare and elder care services. The project was part of a larger work program by the World Bank focusing on supply and demand-side assessment of child and elderly care services in ECA Countries.
Supply and Demand for Child Care Services in Turkey: A Mixed Methods Study
Early Childhood Education and Care, Female labour Force Participation
April 2014 - September 2015
This is a mixed-methods study that investigates the status of childcare services in Turkey, particularly from the angle of quality, affordability, accessibility, and sufficiency of such supply. The overall work was done considering the potential interaction between such services and female labour force participation and productivity. Quantitative and qualitative data were collected for the study in 5 provinces of Turkey: Istanbul, Samsun, Eskisehir, Denizli, and Gaziantep. The study has 4 main components:
Mapping of Child Care: The availability and capacity of existing childcare and early childhood education supply were mapped in relation to the potential demand (i.e. number of children), female labour force participation levels, and (information allowed) average household income levels, both at the national level and in selected provinces.
Supply-Side Assessment: Quantitative data was collected from 603 preschools and child care centres in Turkey and the types of childcare services available to households, both public and private, as well as community-based and other models were investigated along with their quality, cost, and accessibility in detail.
Demand-Side Assessment: The normative and social aspects of use and access to childcare services are explored. This assessment includes both focus groups and individual questionnaires to better understand the care needs of families with children, household preferences when it comes to childcare, and barriers to access childcare, as well as women’s and men’s expectations of a new childcare support model. The demand assessment is structured around the dynamics of care demand and supply at the household level, taking women and their labour force engagement as the centre of focus. The assessment includes 25 focus group discussions with working, non-working mothers and fathers in 5 provinces.
Costing exercise: The actual operating costs of childcare centres in these provinces are investigated. The exercise also takes into consideration average family income in those provinces as well as household willingness to pay for childcare centres.
Supporting Access and Continued Employment of Women by Enhancing Child Care Services
Female Labour Force Participation, Early Childhood Education and Care
November 2014 - April 2015
This study evaluates the possibility of expanding childcare facilities by analysing the demand conditions currently in the market for undertaking private-sector childcare investments in order to enhance female employment. It also aims to provide a demand assessment for possibilities of investments by the private sector, organized industrial zones (OIZs), and municipalities. In this respect, qualitative data were collected from municipalities, organized industrial zones, and corporate firms as providers of private childcare services in three provinces of Turkey. A total of 50 in-depth interviews were carried out with stakeholders at municipalities, organized industrial zones, corporate firms, and financial institutions for the feasibility study, and results were compiled using a coding structure that enabled the team to code and analyse the qualitative data in a quantitative format. The report includes (i) an overview of the childcare services sector for Turkey looking at public and private provision and assessing the institutional set-up of the sector, (ii) assesses demand for childcare by households using data from a recent World Bank study on childcare in Turkey; (iii) focuses on private and local providers of childcare in Turkey, first looking at the microeconomics of private providers (cost and pricing structure) in the sector and then focusing on fieldwork results taken from in-depth interviews carried out for this study with agents at workplaces (corporates, organized industrial zones) as well as municipalities.
Analysis of the Impact of Turkey Health Transformation Program on Health Utilization and Outcomes using Turkish Household Level Micro Data Sets
Child and Maternal Health
November 2012 - April 2013
The paper measured the extent to which improvements in health outcomes observed in the years 2003-2008 were due to the expansion of the demand-side health insurance subsidy to the poor and to what extent they could be attributed to other supply-side changes taking place in the health sector in the same time period. This paper used 4 cross-sectional Demographic and Health Surveys for Turkey in 1993, 1998, 2003, and 2008 to look at changes over time in insurance coverage, and health care utilization in the antenatal period, during birth, and the early postnatal period for children. Four different health care utilization variables were used: (i) whether the mother has received any antenatal care during pregnancy, (ii) whether the birth was given at a health facility (public or private), (iii) whether the birth was attended by skilled staff (a doctor, midwife or nurse) and (iv) whether the child has received a complete set of vaccinations. The variables are defined in the data for all children in the 0-4 age group (with births in the past 4 years) for the first three variables and for children in the 12-23 month group (1-year-olds) for the vaccination variable.
The paper was utilized as a background paper for The LANCET Report "Universal Health Coverage in Turkey: Enhancing Equity".
Estimating the Economic Value of Unpaid Elderly and Child Care by Turkish Women
Female Labour Force Participation, Early Childhood Care and Education
March 2014 - September 2015
Women, whether in employment or not, spend a significant amount of time in Turkey occupied in unpaid home-based care activities, providing care for children and the elderly in their families. Among OECD countries, the country ranks second in terms of the amount of time women spend on unpaid household chores and activities. This study estimates the economic value of time women allocate in Turkey to direct care activities at home by using two main methodologies: (i) the opportunity cost method estimates the value of time using each woman’s potential earnings in the labor market, and (ii) the proxy good method calculates the value of time taking into account a constant fixed value of hourly earnings (either the minimum wage or the average wage of a social worker).
The value of direct care, which constitutes a lower-bound for overall care activities of women, is estimated to be around 1.37-3.34 percent of GDP as of 2011. Using the opportunity cost of earnings methodology, the paper estimates the economic value of refocusing the time spent on care activities to employment to be 1.5 billion USD for working women and 4.8 billion USD for non-working women.
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Turkey Health System Policy Dialogue: Synthesis Paper on the Turkey Health Reform
October 2013 - January 2014
This synthesis report summarises Turkey’s efforts under the Health Transformation Program for reaching universal health coverage (UHC). Beginning in 2003, Turkey initiated a series of reforms under the Health Transformation Program (HTP) that over the past decade have led to the achievement of universal health coverage. Turkey’s reform efforts have impacted virtually all aspects of the country’s health system and have resulted in the rapid expansion of the proportion of the population covered and of the services to which they are entitled. At the same time, financial protection has improved. For example, (i) insurance coverage increased from 64 to 98 percent between 2002 and 2012; (ii) the share of pregnant women having four antenatal care visits increased from 54 to 82 percent between 2003 and 2010, and (iii) citizen satisfaction with health services increased from 39.5 to 75.9 percent between 2003 and 2011. Despite dramatic improvements, there is still space for Turkey to continue to improve its citizens’ health outcomes, and challenges lie ahead for improving services beyond primary care. The main criticism of reform has so far come from health sector workers; the future sustainability of reform will rely not only on continued fiscal support to the health sector but also on the maintenance of service provider satisfaction.
Survey on School-based Violence among Young Adolescents
March 2013 - May 2013
The objective of this study was the preparation of a methodology for the Young Life Foundation (Genç Hayat Vakfı) to investigate "School-based Violence (and Bullying) among Young Adolescents". A survey instrument was designed to measure the intended outcomes using similar surveys from international studies. The sample was selected among public high schools in Istanbul and was fielded in May - June 2013 by the Young Life Foundation.
Good Jobs in Turkey: Post-Crisis Adjustment and Employment Generation for Men, Women, and Youth in Turkey
Youth, Gender, Employment
July 2013 - September 2013
The paper looked at the composition and nature of employment generation among youth and women in the post-crisis period in Turkey between 2009-2011. The paper discussed changes in trends in employment generation, particularly for youth and women between the pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. While the rapid growth of GDP and employment in the post-crisis period, coupled with the formalization of employment in the labour market and the increased employment elasticity of growth, presented a favourable picture of the employment situation in Turkey, a closer look at labour force surveys suggested that there was not yet reason to assume that these changes in the labour market will have lasting effects. The majority of the changes observed could be linked to (i) the agricultural sector re-absorbing a significant portion of the unskilled female labour force into informal employment; (ii) temporary growth in the residential construction sector; and (iii) older people remaining in the formal labour market for longer periods. Younger cohorts have seen a shift from informal to formal work, although overall job growth was little. However, for youth, a significant change could not be found in the employment trend in the post-crisis period compared to the pre-crisis period. The improvement in female labour force participation, particularly when we disregard returns to the agricultural sector - is not yet significantly above its pre-crisis trend either.