Poverty, Inequality and Welfare


 Projects     Publications     Experts 

About 1.2 billion people worldwide live under less than 1.25 USD per day, and this coincides to about 17 percent of the world’s population. Multidimensional measures of poverty may indicate even higher levels of the world’s population facing different kinds of deprivation. The global poor define extreme poverty as a lack of food, a lack of access to infrastructure, being in poor health, being illiterate, and being without a voice. These deprivations, together, put people at a severe disadvantage and, therefore, constitute the multiple dimensions of poverty. Priority actions for poverty eradication include providing access to sustainable livelihoods and equal opportunities for those with lesser means and providing access to basic services such as education, health, and basic infrastructure. Development Analytics focuses on both the measurement of poverty and inequality as well as the evaluations of poverty alleviation and social protection programs under this work program.  The measurement of multidimensional poverty, measurement of inequality of opportunities, the link between poverty and access to basic social services, and the targeting, effectiveness, and impact of social protection programs are key components of research projects we have carried out in this field. 



Annual Update of the Targeting System for Multipurpose Cash and Food Assistance in Lebanon

Poverty, Cash Transfers, Targeting, Refugees, Proxy Means Testing

Since 2018, the Development Analytics team has developed, calibrated, and assessed the accuracy of the proxy-means targeting model for the annual unconditional cash assistance programs to Syrian refugees in Lebanon. This study takes a mixed-methods approach the developing the targeting system. On the quantitative side, the study relies on recently developed econometric tools that use a combination of survey and administrative data and out-of-sample testing methods to target the vulnerable population in an environment with imperfect information on the vulnerability. The qualitative work harnesses extensive interaction with field staff and refugees to identify the core challenges with the systematic quantitative approach to help develop a grievance redress mechanism for implementing agencies.

Read the Paper: "Targeting humanitarian aid using administrative data: Model design and validation"

July 2020 - Ongoing

Assessment of the Socio-Economic impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Children and Families in Turkey

Poverty, Impact of COVID 19, Microsimulations, Cash transfers

COVID-19 pandemic, apart from the health-related challenges, has serious socio-economic impact on the households. The pandemic is predicted to cause the worst economic recession in decades with a forecasted 5.2 percent contraction in global GDP. Turkey is forecasted to experience a significant recession as a result of the pandemic as well. In 2020, the ECA region as a whole is forecasted to have a 4.7 percent and Turkey a 3.8 percent GDP contraction. This study aims to analyse the possible impact of the current crisis on both household and child poverty, through the labour market channel. The model will analyse the possible impact of COVID-19 on household labour income and hence household expenditure that will decrease as a result of loss of jobs or reduced labour income. After estimating the impact of the shock on household income and expenditures, the same model will be used to estimate the possible impact of cash transfers to various target groups to alleviate this negative income effect. The impact of cash transfers on outcomes such as overall poverty, child poverty and inequality will be estimated along with total cost and cost effectiveness of each scenario.  The microsimulation will make use of Household Budget Survey 2018 (collected by TURKSTAT) as the main data source.

June 2020-November 2020

Microsimulation Model for Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 on Child Poverty in St Lucia

Poverty, Multi-dimensional poverty, Impact of COVID 19, Microsimulations, Cash transfers

COVID-19 pandemic, apart from the health-related challenges, has serious socio-economic impact on the households. With a monetary poverty rate  at 25% and multidimensional poverty at about 24.2%, Saint Lucia could be affected strongly by COVID-19 pandemic.  This study aims to provide estimates on the impact of COVID-19 on monetary and multidimensional poverty in Saint Lucia, through various channels including labour market, health and education.  After identifying household level shocks and re-estimating poverty figures based on this model, distribution of cash transfers to various target groups will be modelled and their ‘alleviating’ impact on poverty rates will be estimated. 

May 2020 - ongoing

Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 on Child Poverty in Georgia using a Micro-Simulation Model

Poverty, Impact of COVID 19, Microsimulations, Cash transfers

COVID-19 pandemic, apart from the health-related challenges, has a serious socio-economic impact on the households. The pandemic is predicted to cause the worst economic recession in decades with a forecasted 5.2 percent contraction in global GDP.  ILO recently estimated that the pandemic would cause job losses equal to 195 million full-time jobs.  Due to the contraction in economic activities, globally, an estimated 42-66 million children could fall into poverty.

Georgia is forecasted to experience a significant recession because of the pandemic and given high rates of vulnerability to poverty in the country; this will have a substantial impact on overall poverty and child poverty rates. This study aims to provide estimates of the effects of COVID-19 on household and child poverty in Georgia, through its impact on the labour market. The study, apart from estimating the poverty impact of the COVID crisis, also estimates the poverty-reducing impact of several cash transfer scenarios targeting different groups in the population and at varying benefit levels. One of the outputs of the study will be an interactive simulation model that will enable policymakers to look at the poverty impact and cost of varying levels of the cash benefit under different scenarios. 

📖 Download the report 

Interactive Simulation Tool 

May 2020 - ongoing

Reform of Unconditional Cash Transfer Programme (Ajutor Social) of Moldova: Simulation and Costing of Options to Improve Coverage for Vulnerable Households


This study considers potential reforms to Ajutor Social (AS), Moldova’s national targeted cash transfer programme in place since 2008 which presently covers around 7 percent of the population.  The research aims to help the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Social Protection (MHLSP) be better equipped to consider how to reform AS to improve coverage for single parents, large families, and households with members who have a disability. Together, these three types of households compose a group of ‘priority households’ for the analysis of how AS can be reformed to increase coverage across them.

Overseas Development Institute partnered with Development Analytics to address two fundamental questions on behalf of UNICEF and MHLSP:

  • How can Ajutor Social be Reformed to Improve Coverage of and Outcomes for A Priority Group of Vulnerable Households?”

  • How can the costs of reform of Ajutor Social be estimated and what ‘costing model’ can be produced to demonstrate these?’

​The research uses the micro-data from the Moldovan Household Budget Survey (MHBS) for 2017, the last year of that survey that contained a special module on claiming and receiving AS.  The data from MHBS 2017 was used to construct a micro-simulation model that replicated the rules for entitlement and award of AS and allowed simulations of alternative rules of entitlement based on policy reform scenarios.​

October 2018 – September 2019

Thematic Studies on the Extension of the CCTE Programme to Refugees in Turkey

Refugees, cash transfers, education

As of 2018, over 3.8 million Syrians were under temporary protection of whom 1.8 million of them are children. The magnitude of the problem and a high number of Syrians in the country required establishing various social protection programmes. The Government of Turkey along with UNICEF and other partners have put a significant amount of effort as a response to this crisis. One of these actions is the Conditional Cash Transfer for Education (CCTE). This CCTE programme has cash and a protection component where families receive financial support for every child attending school. This study analysed the key aspects related to the access and effects of the programme for working children, including seasonal agricultural labour, ii) boys and girls, iii) children of different age groups (1-4th grade, 5-8th grade, 9-12th grade). The aim of the study was to understand the supply and demand side bottlenecks that hinder these children’s access to CCTE programme and payment as well as Child Protection visits. To this end, 23 FGDs with children and their parents were conducted in three provinces, Istanbul, Gaziantep, and Adana in addition to 14 key informant interviews with programme implementers and MONE staff in these provinces. 

May 2018 – February 2019

Annual Re-estimation of the Proxy Means Test Regression Model Used to Target Refugees for Multipurpose Cash in Lebanon

Poverty, Cash Transfers, Targeting, Refugees, Proxy Means Testing

To determine the socio-economic vulnerability of the population of concern and subsequently target families to benefit from cash and food assistance programmes, UNHCR, WFP, and partners in relevant sectors use an econometric formula, predicting expenditure (proxy means test) of refugee households in Lebanon. The Basic Assistance and Food Security Sectors use these predictions as the Desk Formula to select beneficiaries for multi-purpose cash and food assistance programmes. To ensure that up-to-date information is feeding into the targeting methodology and that there is a consistency of implementation between UNHCR’s multipurpose cash programme, WFP’s food assistance programmes and programmes of relevant sector partners, the Desk Formula is re-estimated on an annual basis.

In 2018, Development Analytics re-estimated the Desk Formula and thereby refined the targeting approach for multi-purpose cash and food assistance interventions to meet food and other basic needs of refugees in Lebanon. This year, Development Analytics has been re-contracted for the 2019 annual re-estimation.

April 2018 - October 2019

Myanmar Dry Zone Social Protection Project Endline Assessment


”Dry Zone Social Protection Project” is implemented by HelpAge International in collaboration with the Mandalay YMCA to help vulnerable households in the Dry Zone to cope and manage risks. This three-year project aims to expand social protection by enhancing informal community-based mechanisms and practices; strengthening government and community capacity to protect the poor; and delivering cash benefits to vulnerable groups (people with disabilities and older people). The project ends in December 2018. The locations of the project are a total of 180 villages with 30 villages in each of six target townships of two regions of Myanmar. At the beginning of the project, two different baseline surveys were collected and end line surveys will be collected to measure the change in vulnerability and social protection over the course of the project and also measure the impact of the cash transfers. In collaboration with ODI, Development Analytics assists with the end line assessment's study design, conducting data analysis, and reporting on the findings. 

May 2018 - December 2018

Child Deprivation Analysis for Azerbaijan


This project focuses on analysing Child Deprivation Surveys from 2015 and 2017 collected by State Statistical Committee (SSC) of Azerbaijan Republic, to measure household and child deprivation and risk of poverty, and provide a comprehensive analysis of the patterns and trends across both surveys. Additionally, currently used methodological approaches and tools (sampling, questionnaires, calculation, etc.) to estimate the relevance of the methodology of measuring child deprivation/poverty in the country will be assessed.

The study aims to provide recommendations on the improvement of data collection and measurement strategy of child deprivation and poverty to be able to respond to national priorities and SDG monitoring and reporting needs. Practical recommendations on the improvement of policies and programs for children will also be presented. The study will be helpful in providing insights on what constitutes good economic and social policy for children and in justifying the importance of the process of developing child-centred budgets and policies.

April 2018 - October 2018

Decentralised Evaluation of the ECHO funded Emergency Social Safety Net (ESSN) in Turkey

Cash Transfers, Refugees

Turkey has the largest refugee population of any country in the world with 2.8 million Syrian refugees currently residing in Turkey. The Emergency Social Safety Net Programme (ESSN) will provide at least 1 million refugees with an unconditional and unrestricted cash transfer of 100 TL per month making it the largest ever EU-supported humanitarian cash transfer programme. The programme is available to all foreigners with refugee status who live off-camp and are under temporary protection or international protection. The programme is funded by the European Commission through European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (ECHO) and is implemented through the Turkish government social welfare system by means of an ATM cash card. The WFP is a key stakeholder in the project and worked closely with ECHO to design and implement the programme. The interim evaluation assesses the first year of the programme’s implementation and is aimed to be used to inform decision-making in the second year. In collaboration with Oxford Policy Management, Development Analytics was involved in organising fieldwork, carrying out focus group discussions and key informant interviews, and conducting qualitative data analysis.

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May 2017 - April 2018

Education of Disadvantaged Children in the OIC: the Key to Escape from Poverty


This report focuses on access to education among disadvantaged groups in the member states of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). The report provides an overview of the current status and recent trends in education focusing on access to quality education by poverty status, location, gender, spoken language /ethnicity, and disability status of children as well as policies and programmes to improve access among disadvantaged groups. The main focus is on primary and lower secondary education. The report consists of four parts. i) An outline of the conceptual framework used in analysing the state of education in OIC countries. ii) A summary of the state of education across OIC member states. This includes an analysis of trends across and between countries as well as an assessment of which groups are most disadvantaged with respect to access to education. iii) Case studies for the member states Jordan, Pakistan, Senegal, and Turkey provide a more detailed assessment of factors affecting education provision in these countries. iv) Policy recommendations to increase access to education among disadvantaged groups. These include both general recommendations but also country-specific recommendations that take into account the local context.

📖 Download the PPT

📖 Download the report  and  the infographic

📖 Download the infographics of  Pakistan  Jordan   Senegal

March 2017-October 2017

Indonesia - Stock-take of Capacity Development for Local Service Delivery

Capacity building, Poverty

The overall objective of this project is to assist the World Bank Indonesia Decentralisation program to improve the quality of support for district-level capacity development. As Indonesia transitions from a lower-middle-income country to an upper-middle-income country and beyond, the challenge of improving service delivery has become more complex. The World Bank is providing advisory services and analytics to support the government to put in place new performance, accountability, and capacity development systems as part of these reforms.  The stocktake is expected to contribute both conceptual thinkings as well as an evidence base that can enable the effective programming of decentralization support as well as providing broader guidance/ learning for WB colleagues working in related fields.   In this way, it is envisioned that the stocktake will contribute to a revision and update their “theory of change” to include district (and village) driven change processes as an integral part of creating the conditions for service delivery improvement.

June 2016 - May 2017

Benefit Incidence of Fuel Subsidies in Madagascar and Recommendations for Child-Friendly Reallocation


Fuel subsidies lead to environmental damage through inefficiencies in energy use, they are a burden for the public budget and moreover, they are regressive, benefiting the already better-off households. Despite, these negative qualities, energy subsidies are still implemented throughout the World. Post-tax energy subsidies in the World are estimated to be 5.3 trillion USD while fuel subsidies alone, are estimated to be 1.5 trillion USD, making up 1.8 percent of the global GDP in 2015. Although fuel subsidies are regressive, fuel subsidy reforms impact the poor the hardest. Previous experience with fuel subsidy reforms around the World shows that poverty increases as a result of fuel subsidy removal if it is not mitigated with redistribution efforts like cash transfers.In Madagascar, the government decided to eliminate fuel subsidies gradually in June 2014. Yet, the price control mechanism has not been dropped yet. Given the sharp fall in international oil prices in the last year, a window of opportunity has opened for Madagascar and countries alike to adopt a liberalized pricing system and abolish fuel subsidies.
In this study, using ENSOMD 2012 data set, we show that in Madagascar, fuel subsidies are highly regressive. Gasoline and diesel consumption is very rare in the households in the bottom 60 percent while kerosene is commonly consumed by households from all income groups. We find that poor households are affected the least if kerosene price remains unchanged. Nevertheless, different price increase scenarios including a change in the price of kerosene do not increase poverty by more than 1 percentage points. Instead reallocating the gains from the fuel subsidy reform to children aged 0-4 or 0-14 uniformly is found to decrease poverty rates between 2.4 to 4.6 percentage points.

📖 Download the Full Paper 

July 2015 - November 2015

Case Study on the Integrated Social Assistance MIS System in Turkey

Poverty and Social Assistance

Turkey’s Integrated Social Assistance Information System (ISAS-BUTUNLESIK) serves an important integrative function. Launched in 2009, ISAS enables the centralized collection of applications from poor and vulnerable households from each of the country’s Social Assistance and Solidarity Foundations and integrates them into a Single Registry. The ISAS links applicant data to other databases in 16 institutions, connecting 56 databases and uses the information to help determine eligibility for all SA programs. In 2013, 8 million households and 30 million people were enrolled in the Single Registry. This country case study note is prepared for the World Bank and the General Directorate of Social Assistance under the Ministry of Family and Social Policy of the Republic of Turkey.  The case study presents the evolution of the integrated social assistance targeting system and includes: (i) an overview of the national policies, programmes, and the agencies in social protection; (ii) MIS scope and functions (including collaboration across government agencies); (iii) the strategy and history of the implementation of ICT programmes; (iv) data management and consolidation; (vi) security and privacy issues, (vii) the composition and organization of the IT unit within the SP agency and MIS maintenance issues; and (viii) upcoming reform plans and lessons learned. 

April 2015 - June 2015

Improvement of Basic Services Delivery for the Poor in the OIC Member Countries

Access to Basic Services, Poverty, Aid Effectiveness

This study focuses on basic service delivery in OIC member countries, covering education, health care, water, sanitation and electricity sectors. The study presents the situation in the 57 member countries drawing on data collected from various sources and a literature review with regards to the access to the services, service delivery models employed and financing of the services along with common challenges that are observed in member countries in the delivery of basic services. Apart from the overview of the countries, the report includes in-depth case country studies of Indonesia, Bangladesh, Turkey, and Lebanon on the delivery of basic services, based on a literature review, as well as elite interviews. The report concludes with recommendations for the member countries to improve their basic service delivery models. 

📖 Download the Report

January 2015 – September 2015

Impact Evaluation of the Hüsnü M. Özyeğin Rural Development Program in Eastern Turkey

Rural Development, Impact Evaluation, Aid Effectiveness

Experimental impact evaluation study and household survey instrument covering modules on agricultural activities, migration, household assets, income, and consumption, time use, social networks, access to education and health services, and women’s empowerment. Sample size: 6 treatment and 6 control villages 326 households in the baseline (Dec 2008) and 389 households in panel (Dec 2010) surveyed. Third survey round in treatment and control villages scheduled for December 2013. Fieldwork funded by the Hüsnü M. Özyeğin Foundation. Design of the impact evaluation study, the design of the survey instrument, training of enumerators in the field, training of data entry staff, econometric analysis, and write-up of baseline and panel findings. 

December 2008 - March 2014

Socioeconomic Impact of Mining on Local Communities in Africa

Welfare and Poverty Measurement, Africa

The analysis focused on the “Socioeconomic Impact of Mining on Local Communities in Africa” and provided econometric analysis for 2 case countries: Tanzania and Mali. Our research question is whether local communities benefit from mining activity. More specifically, we look at the impact of the extractive activity on households’ welfare and children’s nutrition and education indicators. We utilize a rich dataset where data are coming from various sources such as Demographic Health Surveys (DHS), Household Budget Surveys (HBS), and Censuses of Population of the two countries. We also use information on the location, opening date, and actual production of mines in Tanzania and Mali. According to the data provided by the World Bank on the operation of mines in these two countries, the first mine started operating in Tanzania in 1998 and in Mali in 1997. The study will follow a diffs-in-diffs methodology looking at outcome variables before the setting up of the mines and about a decade after the mines have been in existence. In order to have a good understanding of the impact of gold extraction on the outcomes different specification methods are going to be employed throughout the analysis regarding the choice of treatment units, the treatment variable and control units. 

📖 Read the Paper

📖 Download the Full Report 

March 2014 - June 2014



Measuring Inequality of Opportunity with

Measuring Inequality of Opportunity with Imperfect Data: The Case of Turkey

Francisco H. G. Ferreira, Jeremie Gignoux , Meltem A. Aran

February 2010

The measurement of inequality of opportunity has hitherto not been attempted in a number of countries because of data limitations. This paper proposes two alternative approaches to circumventing the missing data problems in countries where a demographic and health survey and an ancillary household expenditure survey are available. One method relies only on the demographic and health survey and constructs a wealth index as a measure of economic advantage. The alternative method imputes consumption from the ancillary survey into the demographic and health survey. In both cases, the between-type share of overall inequality is computed as a lower bound estimator of inequality of opportunity. Parametric and non-parametric estimates are calculated for both methods, and the parametric approach is shown to yield preferable lower-bound measures. In an application to the sample of ever-married women aged 30-49 in Turkey, inequality of opportunity accounts for at least 26 percent (31 percent) of overall inequality in imputed consumption (the wealth index).

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Journal of Human Development.JPG

Can Regulations Make It More Difficult to Serve the Poor? The Case of Childcare Services in Istanbul, Turkey

Meltem A. Aran, Ana Maria Munoz Boudet, Nazli Aktakke

November 2016

This paper considers the impact of regulations on private childcare capacity in the context of Turkey's highly regulated childcare market. Using data from a recently fielded survey that sampled 141 private ECEC facilities in Istanbul, Turkey, the paper looks at the impact of fixed regulations on prices and poor children’s access to services. The paper, in particular looks at the outdoor space requirement that was originally imposed on private providers in the 1960s and has over time become more difficult to fulfill in densely populated districts of the city. The paper estimates that controlling for other provider characteristics, in districts where such requirement is more binding, the price of childcare services increases by 376.2 TL per child per month and the percentage of children enrolled coming from "poor" backgrounds is lower by 15.1% points than in districts where this standard proves less challenging.   

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Socioeconomic Impact of Mining Activity

Socioeconomic Impact of Mining Activity: Effects of Gold Mining on Local Communities in Tanzania and Mali

Beyza Polat, Nazlı Aktakke, Meltem A. Aran, Andrew Dabalen, Punam Chuhan-Pole, Aly Sanoh

October 2014

The effect of extractive activity on economic growth and development is a long-debated issue in economics literature. While most of the existing literature focuses on the macroeconomic impacts of natural resource abundance, there is a rather limited but growing strand of literature that studies the local economy impact of extractive activity using microdata. This paper aims to contribute to this literature by providing new evidence on the effects of gold mining in two resource-rich African countries: Tanzania and Mali. We utilize a rich data set collected from various sources and apply a differences-in-differences estimation strategy to see whether individuals/households geographically close to mines are affected differently from the opening of mines. We look at a number of outcome variables including various measures of children’s health indicators, households’ access to facilities, and women and men’s employment status. The first part of the analysis is at the household/individual level where the data is kept and treatment is defined at. As a second attempt, we aggregate the data up to the district level by using the appropriate poverty mapping techniques and apply Abadie et al. (2010)’s Synthetic Control Group method to study whether mining districts behave differently from non-mining districts after mines start operation. We reach different conclusions for the two case countries. In the case of Tanzania, we show that households in the immediate mining catchment area are negatively affected by extractive activity whereas this effect becomes positive when we consider households that are located in neighbouring and further away catchment areas. In the case of Mali, any significant positive impact of mining activity is on those households that are located closer to the mines. Those households, who are still in the catchment area but further away from the mine, are either not affected or negatively affected by mining activity.

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Welfare Impact of the Global Economic Cr

Welfare Impact of the Global Economic Crisis of 2008-2009 on Turkish Households: Evidence from a Specialized Monitoring Survey in 7 Provinces

Meltem A. Aran

February 2013

This paper looks at how the macro shock from the 2008 financial crisis has translated into income and welfare shocks in the form of reduced earnings and consumption at the household level in Turkey. Using a specialized household level Welfare Monitoring Survey implemented in May-June 2009 in 7 provinces of Turkey, the paper estimates the impact of the macro-shock on food, education, and health-related expenditures. The paper first establishes a link between the macro-level shock in the financial sector in the province and the changes in earnings at the household level and then using an instrumental variables strategy, establishes the link between the earnings shock and changes in consumption. The main findings in the paper are that the informally employed workers and those with lower levels of education (lower than university level) were more likely to be hurt by the Crisis in the provinces where the survey was collected. Food expenditures acted as the main adjustment mechanism in the face of the income shock, while education and health expenditures remained relatively stable. The probability of reducing food consumption (and the amount of food provided to children) was highest among the poor that initially had low levels of household assets.

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A Methodology Note on the Employment and

A Methodology Note on the Employment and Welfare Impacts of the 2007-08 Financial Crisis

Mohamed Ihsan Ajwad, Meltem A. Aran, Mehtabul Azam, Jesko Hentschel

June 2013

The welfare impacts of economic downturns generally have to be estimated using simulation tools because of delays in conducting detailed household surveys. This note documents a methodology with which social impacts of an economic slowdown, through its impact on the sources of household income, can be simulated using a simple partial equilibrium model. The simulated impacts are direct, short-run impacts, and do not take into account general equilibrium effects. The methodology has the advantage that it can be implemented in a relatively short time and the data requirements for the analysis are household surveys, which are now generally available in most countries around the world. The methodology was implemented by The World Bank in Turkey and Latvia in early 2009. The main purpose of the work was to help policymakers estimate the scale of the welfare impact on households. This type of information can be crucial to draw attention to the “human impact” of an economic slowdown, but also to help simulate the strength of safety nets needed to avert erosion in human capital. This note will focus on the Latvia and Turkey cases to illustrate the ease with which the model can be adapted to estimating the distributional impacts of economic shocks. Simulations show that both countries will experience a sharp rise in poverty, a widening poverty gap, and a rise in income inequality. With an 18 percent GDP contraction in 2009 and the above employment projections, poverty will increase from 14.4 percent to 20.2 percent of the population in Latvia. In Turkey, simulations indicate that estimated GDP contractions of 5 percent and 1 percent in 2009 and 2010 respectively, in the absence of policy changes, will increase poverty headcount from a predicted 17.4 percent (2008) to 21.7 percent.

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Inequality of Opportunity in Access to B

Inequality of Opportunity in Access to Basic Services Among Egyptian Children

Meltem A. Aran, Lire Ersado

July 2013

This paper estimates inequality of opportunities among Egyptian children over time between the years 2000 and 2008 using Egypt Demographic and Health Surveys. The Human Opportunity Index (HOI) is calculated across four categories of access to services, including health utilization, nutrition, basic infrastructure services, and school enrolment. Over these years, Egypt implemented several policies in the health and education sectors that improved the access of children to services through the nation-wide Family Health Model (FHM), as well as through a social marketing campaign to promote iodized salt. This paper finds improvements in the Human Opportunity Index linked to such policies, with HOI increasing from 38.8 to 67.7 for instance for the probability of blood sample being taken from mother during pregnancy, and from 37.6 to 63.4 for births taking place in public or private health facilities. Increases in overall coverage of health services were responsible for improvements in the HOI. However, in terms of malnutrition, indicators have deteriorated during this time period, with HOI for not being stunted decreasing from 78.2 to 74. The decomposition of the HOI finds that the probability of malnutrition among Egyptian children is not closely linked to family circumstances, contrary to what one might expect, calling for more supply-side (and less targeted) efforts to reduce malnutrition for all Egyptian children.

📖 Read the Paper

📖 Read our Article "Child Development Indicators in the Egyptian Context"

Poverty and Inequality Changes in Turkey

Poverty and Inequality Changes in Turkey (2003-2006)

Meltem A. Aran, Sırma Demir, Özlem Sarıca, Hakan Yazici

March 2010

Poverty in Turkey has declined significantly between 2003 and 2006, as a result of rapid poverty reduction in urban areas. In the same time period, the reduction in poverty in rural areas has been slow or non-existent. As a result, the relative risk of poverty has increased in this time period for those employed in the agricultural sector, living in rural areas and in large households. Inequality in urban areas has decreased as a result of higher growth in the consumption levels of the urban poor compared to richer deciles, while no significant changes to inequality measures have been noted in rural areas. In fact, the consumption levels of the poorest groups in rural Turkey have declined between 2003 and 2006. Child poverty has also been persistent in this time period, with the relative risk of poverty for children (ages 0-19) increasing over time.

📖 Read the Paper



Meltem Aran, Ph.D.
Executive Director

Meltem is a human development economist with research focusing on poverty, inequality, and overall distributional impact of social policies. Since 2004, she has been involved in various research projects and impact evaluations relating to poverty and human development with the World Bank in East Asia, ECA, and MENA regions.

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Güneş Aşık, Ph.D.
Research Associate

Güneş is a development economist with research interests in growth, regional development, and female labour force participation trends. She works as an assistant professor at TOBB Economics and Technology University in Ankara and is teaching econometrics, statistics, and mathematics. Her current research is on the estimation of income per capita series and constructing development indicators for the 26 regions of Turkey since the late 19th century using historical sources.


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Gökçe Baykal, Ph.D.
Research Associate

Gökçe is a political scientist and her work focuses on the political and socio-economic impacts of poverty alleviation programs on poor people. Most recently she has been working on conditional cash transfers in Turkey and her work investigates whether transferring cash with conditions to the poor empower their social citizenship or produce/reproduce linkages, their obligations to reciprocate in terms of supporting the political party allocating them.

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Didem Pekkurnaz, Ph.D.
Research Associate

Didem is an applied microeconomist with primary interests in health and labour economics. She holds a BS degree in Statistics, an MS degree in Economics from Middle East Technical University and a doctoral degree in Economics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

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Onur Altindag, Ph.D.
Research Associate

​Onur Altindag is an assistant professor of Economics at Bentley University. His research interests lie primarily at the intersection of population and health economics. His early work focused on fertility preferences and their impact on maternal and infant health. In his dissertation.


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Gokce Uysal.Ph.D.
Research Associate

Gokce Uysal is currently an associate professor of economics at Bahcesehir University and the deputy director at Bahcesehir University Center for Economic and Social Research (Betam). She works on labour markets, economics of gender, economics of education, and household savings. Dr. Uysal holds a BA from Galatasaray University and a doctoral degree in Economics from University of Rochester.

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Şenay Özden
Research Associate

Şenay is a cultural anthropologist and a researcher. Her research areas include international migration, refugees, Turkish state’s refugee policies, politics of humanitarian aid.

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Kimberly Colopinto
Urban Planner

Kim is an urban planner with experience conducting quantitative and qualitative analysis. She specializes in spatial analytics and the visualization of data. Kim has worked with public, private, and non-profit organizations to conduct economic impact studies, affordable housing needs analysis, and market analysis, and policy research.


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Zeynep Balcioglu
Research Associate

Zeynep is currently a Doctoral Candidate at the Department of Political Science at Northeastern University. She passed doctoral exams in the fields of comparative politics, public policy, and research design and methodology. She studies forced migration, social policy, and welfare provision mostly in the Middle East and Balkans. 


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Özgür Bozçağa
Research Associate

Ozgur is a Ph.D. student in Economics and Public Policy program jointly offered by The Fletcher School and the Department of Economics at Tufts University.  He received his BA in Political Science and International Relations from Bogazici University and completed his MA in Politics at New York University. He also completed doctoral coursework in quantitative social science at Boston University. 

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Tuğba Bozçağa
Research Associate

Tugba is a Ph.D. student in political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology(MIT). She studies political economy of development using macro- and micro-level statistical data and ethnographic methods.


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Laetitia Lemaistre
Refugee and Education Specialist

Laetitia Lemaistre is an education specialist who focuses on refugee education, education in emergencies and conflict contexts, and humanitarian coordination. She is a third-year doctoral candidate at the Institute of Education at University College London and her research interests lie in refugee children’s access to formal education in Greece, examining both urban and camp caseloads. 

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Nazlı Aktakke
Senior Quantitative Research Analyst

Nazli is a senior quantitative researcher at Development Analytics with experience working on a wide range of topics including cash transfer programs, labour force participation of women, and health and education outcomes of children. 

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