Forced Migration and Refugees

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Due to multiple crisis and conflicts worldwide, global population of forcibly displaced people increased substantially in the last decade. 42.7 million people were forcibly displaced in 2007, reaching 68.5 million in 2017. 25.4 million of the forcibly displaced are refugees. Durable solutions are necessary for the protection of refugees and improving their wellbeing. Additionally actions regarding child specific outcomes like education are important since 52 percent of the refugees are children. Effective solutions require collaborative efforts from multiple partners including international organizations, donors and host countries.  Development Analytics focuses on forced migration and refugees in its work programme in the Middle East and Africa region with a focus on Turkey and Lebanon, specializing in mixed methods evaluations for the assessment of the projects providing support for refugees.



2018 Annual Re-estimation of the Proxy Means Test Regression Model Used to Target Refugees for Multipurpose Cash in Lebanon

Poverty, Cash Transfers, Targeting, Refugees, Proxy Means Testing

To determine socio-economic vulnerability of the population of concern and subsequently target families to benefit from cash and food assistance programmes, UNHCR, WFP and partners in relevant sectors use an econometric formula, predicting expenditure (proxy means test) of refugee households in Lebanon. The Basic Assistance and Food Security Sectors use these predictions as the Desk Formula to select beneficiaries for multi-purpose cash and food assistance programmes. To ensure that up-to-date information is feeding into the targeting methodology and that there is consistency of implementation between UNHCR’s multipurpose cash programme, WFP’s food assistance programmes and programmes of relevant sector partners, the Desk Formula is re-estimated on an annual basis.

In 2018, Development Analytics re-estimated the Desk Formula and thereby refined the targeting approach for multi-purpose cash and food assistance interventions to meet food and other basic needs of refugees in Lebanon. This year, Development Analytics has been re-contracted for the 2019 annual re-estimation.


Decentralised Evaluation of the ECHO funded Emergency Social Safety Net (ESSN) in Turkey

Refugees, cash transfers

Turkey has the largest refugee population of any country in the world with 2.8 million Syrian refugees currently residing in Turkey. The Emergency Social Safety Net Programme (ESSN) will provide at least 1 million refugees with an unconditional and unrestricted cash transfer of 100 TL per month making it the largest ever EU-supported humanitarian cash transfer programme. The programme is available to all foreigners with refugee status who live off-camp and are under temporary protection or international protection. The programme is funded by the European Commission through European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (ECHO) and is implemented through the Turkish government social welfare system by means of an ATM cash card. The WFP is a key stakeholder in the project and worked closely with ECHO to design and implement the programme. The interim evaluation assesses the first year of the programme’s implementation and is aimed to be used to inform decision-making in the second year. In collaboration with Oxford Policy Management, Development Analytics was involved in organising fieldwork, carrying out focus group discussions and key informant interviews, and conducting qualitative data analysis.


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April 2018

Thematic Studies on the Extension of the CCTE Programme to Refugees in Turkey

Refugees, cash transfers, education

As of 2018, over 3.8 million Syrians were under temporary protection of whom 1.8 million of them are children. The magnitude of the problem and high number of Syrians in the country required establishing various social protection programmes. The Government of Turkey along with UNICEF and other partners have put a significant amount of efforts as a response to this crisis. One of these actions is Conditional Cash Transfer for Education (CCTE). This CCTE programme has a cash and a protection component where families receive financial support for every child attending school. This study analysed the key aspects related to the access and effects of the programme for working children, including seasonal agricultural labour, ii) boys and girls, iii) children of different age groups (1-4th grade, 5-8th grade, 9-12th grade). The aim of the study was to understand the supply and demand side bottlenecks that hinder these children’s access to CCTE programme and payment as well as Child Protection visits. To this end, 23 FGDs with children and their parents were conducted in three provinces, Istanbul, Gaziantep and Adana in addition to 14 key informant interviews with programme implementers and MONE staff in these provinces. 

May 2018 – February 2019

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The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Mortality Rates in Turkey

Dr Berna Tunca, the College of Administrative Sciences and Economics, Koç University



Turkey hosts more than 3.6 million registered Syrian refugees. Refugees who were displaced from Syria during the civil war arrived Turkey in great need of health care. Free health care is provided to Syrian immigrants in Turkey, resulting in capacity problems in the provinces with a higher immigrant-native ratio. Public hospitals provided more than 1 million inpatients, and 20 million outpatients care to Syrian refugees between 2011 and 2016 (AFAD). This paper exploits the influx of Syrians to Turkey to estimate the effects of immigrants on the mortality rates of the native population. Using the immigrant-native population ratio as the main control variable and holding health input statistics constant, the paper estimates the effects of refugees on mortality rates of the native population for different gender and age groups.

March 15, 2019

Blessing or Burden? The Impact of Refugees on Businesses and the Informal Economy

Dr Onur Altındağ, Department of Economics, Bentley University July 27, 2018 Abstrac


​This paper studies the impact of more than 3 million Syrian refugees on Turkish businesses operating in an economy with a large informal sector.  It uses an instrumental variable design that relies on exogenous variations in refugee outflows from Syria and the geographic location of Arabic-speaking communities in Turkey before the conflict began. Using yearly censuses of firms, it finds that refugee inflows had a positive impact on the intensive and extensive margins of production, which are highly concentrated in the informal economy. The effects are stronger for smaller firms and those that operate in the construction and hospitality industries.

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July 27, 2018

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Executive Director

Meltem is a human development economist with research focusing on poverty, inequality and overall distributional impact of social policies. Since 2004, she has been involved in various research projects and impact evaluations relating to poverty and human development with the World Bank in East Asia, ECA and MENA regions.


Research Associate

Gökçe is a political scientist and her work focuses on the political and socioeconomic impacts of the poverty alleviation programs on poor people. Most recently she has been working on conditional cash transfers in Turkey and her work investigates whether transferring cash with conditions to the poor empower their social citizenship or produce/reproduce linkages, their obligations to reciprocate in terms of supporting the political party allocating them.

Research Associate

Kristen is an anthropologist with a primary interest in studying migration, diversity and urban change.  Since 2006 she has worked both professionally and academically in the field of immigration and asylum policy and practice in Turkey and has taken part in different research projects funded by the British Council,  the European Union, Husnu M. Ozyegin Foundation and  UNICEF.  

Onur Altindag, Ph.D.

Research Associate

Onur Altindag is an assistant professor of Economics at Bentley University. His research interests lie primarily at the intersection of population and health economics. His early work focused on fertility preferences and their impact on maternal and infant health. In his dissertation

Aytuğ Şaşmaz

Research Associate

Aytug Sasmaz is currently a Ph.D. candidate at the Government Department of Harvard University. He holds degrees in political science from Bogazici University (BA), LSE (MSc), and Brown University (MA). Prior to his doctoral training, he worked as an education policy analyst at the Education Reform Initiative in Turkey, executing research and evaluation projects in collaboration with the Ministry of National Education, UNICEF and World Bank. 

Research Associate

Şenay is a cultural anthropologist and a researcher. Her research areas include international migration, refugees, Turkish state’s refugee policies, politics of humanitarian aid.

Zeynep Balcioglu

Research Associate

Zeynep is currently a Doctoral Candidate at the Department of Political Science at Northeastern University. She passed doctoral exams in the fields of comparative politics, public policy, and research design and methodology. She studies forced migration, social policy and welfare provision mostly in the Middle East and Balkans. 

Marc Petzoldt

Humanitarian (refugee and migration) and development specialist

Marc is a Targeting Assistance Expert and humanitarian aid project manager. He has over twenty years of international experiences in migration and refugee program management. Marc has specialized knowledge in targeting, notably designing and managing cash-based-interventions in humanitarian projects.

Refugee and Education Specialist

Laetitia Lemaistre is an education specialist who focuses on refugee education, education in emergencies and conflict contexts, and humanitarian coordination. She is a third-year doctoral candidate at the Institute of Education at University College London and her research interests lie in refugee children’s access to formal education in Greece, examining both urban and camp caseloads. 

Senior Quantitative Research Analyst

Nazli is a Senior quantitative researcher at Development Analytics with experience working on a wide range of topics including cash transfer programs, labour force participation of women and health and education outcomes of children. 

Arabic Speaking Field Coordinator

Satanay holds Master’s degree in Urban Planning and Sustainable Urban Development and a Bachelor’s degree in Architecture from the Damascus University. She has experience in working with private, public sectors and NGO’s. She speaks, Arabic, English and French.


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تقييم الاثر ، التحليل النوعي ، التحليلات التنموية  ، تحليلات كمية ، اسياسات اجتماعية، البحث النوعي ، جلسات تركيز  ، مناقشات مجموعة التركيز ، تدريب صناع السياسة  ، تدريب  ، تعليم مبكر، ، تعليم الطفولة المبكرة  ، تمكين المرأة ، رعياة الطفولة ، التعليم 

Kalitatif , yapıcıların eğitimi, eğitim, erken çocukluk eğitimi, Kadınların Güçlendirilmesi, çocuk bakımı, eğitimanaliznicel analiz, sosyalpolitika, nitel araştırma, politika

Development Analytics provides evidence based research for social program and policy development. Our main areas of study are poverty, education, health, social protection and the overall distributional impact of social policies. We specialize in large scale data analysis and statistical methods for social research. Our clients include central governments, international development organizations, NGOs (as well as corporate clients with a social responsibility vision). We provide our clients with research and tools to (i) understand and diagnose social problems, (ii) devise programs to tackle these issues and (iii) to measure and rigorously evaluate their results.